Gale Warning 1017, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170037
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF HOMER WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SEWARD
SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A 989 MB LOW 670 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB SUN 
NIGHT THEN WILL MOVE INLAND IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 65 KT. SEAS 37 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW 
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BAY AS USUAL THE GFS IS THE
PREFERRED MODEL IN THE WEST AND THE MODEL IN THE EAST.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND EXIT OVER WESTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND WEAKEN INTO AN
EAST-WEST TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHIFTING PATTERN WILL BRING A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

AT SURFACE...
WEST DOMAIN...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SUNDAY.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE STORM WILL BE TRANSFERRED SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS A FRONT LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE DELTA COAST AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY
WILL CREATE SOME BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY BUT THINGS
WILL IMPROVE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EAST DOMAIN...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR.

THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT WILL PASS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND SWING NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND PARTS OF SUSITNA VALLEY SATURDAY.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS, SO NO MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER ANCHORAGE, THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY AND PARTS OF WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BEHIND THE
FRONT, WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM, ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG EAST ANCHORAGE AND THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY
UNTIL THIS EVENING.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 138, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 06