Gale Warning 1018, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171241
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 967 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO
ONSHORE AS 958 MB NEAR 60N 146W SUNDAY NIGHT. A 959 MB LOW WILL MOVE
TO 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
INCREASING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT AND DIMINISHING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO NE 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT AND SUBSIDING.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
AND SUBSIDING. SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT INCREASING TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT SUBSIDING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
PREFERRED MODEL IN THE WEST. IN THE EAST THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS WITH THE TIMING AND CENTER SIMILAR.  THE EUROPEAN MODELS SEEM TO
MOVE IT ALONG A LITTLE TO QUICK.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL DEEPEN AS
IN MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHIFTING PATTERN WILL BRING A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND RESULTING IN SOME GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT SURFACE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SUNDAY. A FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS
MORNING ALONG KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND IS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY.

SNOW CONTINUES FALLING ALONG THE KOSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY THIS
MORNING  BUT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND
WEAKENS THE THIS MORNING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE EAST A SURFACE LOW IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS
THE WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST. A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. KODIAK HAS ALREADY HAS A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW BUT THAT SHOULD CUT OFF THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPING ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS  KEEPING SNOW TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM, ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG EAST ANCHORAGE AND THROUGH THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120.
         GALE 125 130 132 138 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 05