Small Craft Advisory 1126, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE DEC 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
EAST...965 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
THURSDAY EVENING.  NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE EAST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST...STRENGTH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL BE A FUNCTION OF
ISOBAR ORIENTATION. NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
AK PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD IMPACT NO GULF COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING.
CONTINUED WARM AND WITH MIXED PRECIP AT TIMES.

WEST...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO FORM A 970 MB LOW THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN CENTER WILL BE SOUTH OF ADAK.  THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND NAM ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THEY HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE NAM MOVES THIS SYTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY.  UKMET AND GFS AGREE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN UNKMET TAKES A
MUCH SOUTHERLY TRACK. SUGGEST USING GFS BUT WITH SOME CAUTION ON THE
DETAILS. NEXT FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
ON THURSDAY AND THEN UP INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SEE PACKAGE.
MARINE...SEE PACKAGE.

 DEC 06