Gale Warning 993, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 070509 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
805 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

UPDATE FOR ZONE 150

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT DEVELOPS INTO A 962 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES 50 NM NORTHEAST OF COLD BAY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE.  A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ150-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
805 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO  13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-071500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-071500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-071500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-071500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ170-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-071500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-071500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-071500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-071500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-071500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 071226
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A DEVELOPING LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL STRENGTHEN 
TO 957 MB 70 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW 
WEAKENS TO 964 MB 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY BY FRI AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO 972 MB AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND SAT. A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ150-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-080300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW WIND 35 KT BY LATE THIS MORNING.
SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 7 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

..ANALYSIS..
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THIS
MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE BERING
SEA...PLACING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS HAS LED TO THE WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SNOW
BEING REPORTED AT STATIONS INCLUDING SHEMYA AND ADAK OVERNIGHT. A
POWERFUL 250MB JET STREAM HAS BEEN SPANNING MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALONG 40N...HELPING TO SPAWN NEW STORM SYSTEMS AS JET MAXES THAT MAKE
THEIR WAY ALONG THE JET STREAM. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF A POWERFUL LOW SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND. RAIN  BANDS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS LIMITED
TO WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES AND THE ALASKA
RANGE WITH SNOW FALLING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS AROUND
VALDEZ WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR IS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS TO KEEP
PRECIP FROZEN. A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IS GENERATING A LARGE SWATH
OF OVERRUNNING INDUCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
BERING SEA PER IR IMAGERY/SFC OBS. IR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A
DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE THE
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.

..MODELS..
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FEATURE BEING THE
DEVELOPING LOW OF UNALASKA ISLAND. THE NAM/WRF IS FAVORED THIS
MORNING AS IT INITIALIZES THE DEVELOPING LOW AS WELL AS THE SEPARATE
LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. GFS
AND NAM/WRF MATCH UP WELL WITH BOTH MODELS DRIVING THIS LOW EAST AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE MAINLAND AROUND KAMISHAK
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOWS FORM AND MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...CLOSER TO THE 250MB JET AXIS. IN
THE EXTENDED...THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF
VARIANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE LOW AFTER
SATURDAY WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POSITIONING THE MAIN LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND OTHERS SUGGESTING A LOW FARTHER EAST OVER KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE COMPARISON OF THE
CURRENT GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW FARTHER EAST WHEREAS THE OLD RUN HAS
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE TWO RUNS...ALONG WITH THE THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...COME BACK INTO LINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK VARIES WIDELY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...JUST NUDGING EXTENDED GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NEW GFS RUN DUE TO LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE.

..FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE..
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN
WIDESPREAD THROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS CYCLONIC AND ONSHORE. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
INLAND ZONES WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF PRECIP MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AS
A FRONT MOVES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT BY THE
MOUNTAINS...LEAVING JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

..SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST..
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ZONES
TODAY...MAINLY FROM WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. LOOK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE AK PEN WHICH WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AS THE
MATURING LOW PULLS CLOSER AND THE WARM FRONT BRUSHES BY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS CHANCE POPS UP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW KEEPS SHOWERS LIKELY
ALONG THE AKPEN. THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW INTO SW AK FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS AROUND -14 AS
COMPARED TO -4 CURRENTLY) FINALLY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

..ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA FORECAST..
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ABOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEHIND
THE ADVANCING LOW TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS...WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 170 172 175 185

WOOD DEC 06