Gale Warning 992, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 070115
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN TO 982 MB
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. 
ARIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 15 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 11 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO
VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT. 
AREAS OF FOG NORTH OF THE FORELANDS. FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF THE
FORELANDS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO NE 20 KT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED DEC 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

..ANALYSIS..
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THIS
MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE BERING
SEA...PLACING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS HAS LED TO THE WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE...WITH SNOW
BEING REPORTED AT STATIONS INCLUDING SHEMYA AND ADAK OVERNIGHT. A
POWERFUL 250MB JET STREAM HAS BEEN SPANNING MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALONG 40N...HELPING TO SPAWN NEW STORM SYSTEMS AS JET MAXES THAT MAKE
THEIR WAY ALONG THE JET STREAM. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF A POWERFUL LOW SOUTH
OF KODIAK ISLAND. RAIN  BANDS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS LIMITED
TO WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES AND THE ALASKA
RANGE WITH SNOW FALLING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL AS AROUND
VALDEZ WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR IS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS TO KEEP
PRECIP FROZEN. A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OF THE LOW CENTER IS GENERATING A LARGE SWATH
OF OVERRUNNING INDUCED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
BERING SEA PER IR IMAGERY/SFC OBS. IR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A
DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE THE
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.

..MODELS..
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FEATURE BEING THE
DEVELOPING LOW OF UNALASKA ISLAND. THE NAM/WRF IS FAVORED THIS
MORNING AS IT INITIALIZES THE DEVELOPING LOW AS WELL AS THE SEPARATE
LOW NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. GFS
AND NAM/WRF MATCH UP WELL WITH BOTH MODELS DRIVING THIS LOW EAST AND
THEN NORTH ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE MAINLAND AROUND KAMISHAK
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOWS FORM AND MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...CLOSER TO THE 250MB JET AXIS. IN
THE EXTENDED...THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF
VARIANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE LOW AFTER
SATURDAY WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POSITIONING THE MAIN LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND OTHERS SUGGESTING A LOW FARTHER EAST OVER KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS DIFFERENCE IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE COMPARISON OF THE
CURRENT GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW FARTHER EAST WHEREAS THE OLD RUN HAS
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE TWO RUNS...ALONG WITH THE THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...COME BACK INTO LINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK VARIES WIDELY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...JUST NUDGING EXTENDED GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NEW GFS RUN DUE TO LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE.

..FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE..
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN
WIDESPREAD THROUGH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS REMAINS CYCLONIC AND ONSHORE. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
INLAND ZONES WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT BY THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF PRECIP MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AS
A FRONT MOVES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT BY THE
MOUNTAINS...LEAVING JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

..SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST..
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ZONES
TODAY...MAINLY FROM WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE
ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. LOOK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE AK PEN WHICH WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AS THE
MATURING LOW PULLS CLOSER AND THE WARM FRONT BRUSHES BY. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION KEEPS CHANCE POPS UP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW KEEPS SHOWERS LIKELY
ALONG THE AKPEN. THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW INTO SW AK FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS AROUND -14 AS
COMPARED TO -4 CURRENTLY) FINALLY BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

..ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA FORECAST..
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ABOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEHIND
THE ADVANCING LOW TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AFTER THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS...WIDESPREAD COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BERING SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 170 172 175 185

WOOD DEC 06