Gale Warning 586, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 251151
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW 35 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND 15
NM WEST OF CORDOVA FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. A BERING LOW WILL CROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND BE 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1004 MB SAT EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-260200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-260200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-260200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI AUG 25 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER LOWS OVER THE AKPEN AND WESTERN ALASKA...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
HAS AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH CROSSES KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
AKPEN...EXTENDS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.

GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE ALTHOUGH THE NAM HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL MOVE NORTH INTO ZONE 145 TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KENAI AND ANCHORAGE AREAS
TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FRI. HEAVIEST PRECIP IS TAKING AIM AT
THE NORTH GULF COAST PRIMARILY EAST OF SEWARD. THIS WILL ALSO CROSS
THE CHUGACH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
LATER ON FRIDAY. ON FRI NIGHT THE NEXT BERING SEA LOW WILL REACH THE
AKPEN AND BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SAT. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE THAN THE CURRENT EVENT SINCE
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW IS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE GREATEST PRECIP AREA OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FINDS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MON AND TUE.

IN THE WEST...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK FOR WESTERN AK WILL END FRI
MORNING AS THE BERING LOW HEADS FOR THE AKPEN. PRECIP WILL END SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST. A MASSIVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH DRY BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT KAMCHATKA LOW BRINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTER ALEUTIANS LATE
SAT WHICH WEAKENS AS IT REACHES WESTERN ALASKA SUN EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SOME GALES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SAT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS AUG 06