Gale Warning 584, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED AUG 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
.ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DOMINATE THE
CIRCULATION OVER ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND.  IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTON
SOUND UNTIL EARLY FRI.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING
AND MERGE WITH THE NORTON SOUND LOW AND THEN MOVE TO SOUTH OF KODIAK
BY LATE SAT.  A SHORT WAVE WEST OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY FRI AND THEN TO NORTH OF WHITEHORSE BY LATE
FRI.

.SURFACE.  A 996 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN FRI.  A 998 LOW WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND THU AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY FRI AFTERNOON AND TO SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT.

.MODELS.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS.  THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THE PREFERRED SOLUTION TODAY.  SPECIFICALLY
THE NAM IS DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE GULF LOW THU THAN THE
GFS/UKMET.  THE NAM APPEARS MUCH TO DRY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AND THU.  RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND 60 HOURS.

.WEATHER.  RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN TO
KODIAK TONIGHT AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THU AND THU NIGHT.  EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY LATE THU DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
AND WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH STALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THU
NIGHT. RAIN FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .50 OR LESS IN THE VALLEY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND NEAR ANCHORAGE.  PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND CORDOVA ARE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION.  UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THU
NIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUND.  WE WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONDITIONS IN
CORDOVA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING ZONES 145..111..135
MARINE...GALE ZONES 155 138 410 120 350 150

RHH AUG 06