Gale Warning 583, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 241200
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH 
OF KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE
NORTHERN GULF THU NIGHT. A 1004 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL 
MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL THU NIGHT AND THEN TO NEAR 
PORT HEIDEN FRI NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
$$

PKZ150-250200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-250200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-250200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-250200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-250200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-250200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-250200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-250200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-250200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-250200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. WIDESPREAD FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-250200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-250200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED AUG 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
.ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DOMINATE THE
CIRCULATION OVER ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND.  IT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTON
SOUND UNTIL EARLY FRI.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING
AND MERGE WITH THE NORTON SOUND LOW AND THEN MOVE TO SOUTH OF KODIAK
BY LATE SAT.  A SHORT WAVE WEST OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY FRI AND THEN TO NORTH OF WHITEHORSE BY LATE
FRI.

.SURFACE.  A 996 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY THU AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN FRI.  A 998 LOW WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND THU AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY FRI AFTERNOON AND TO SOUTH OF KODIAK SAT.

.MODELS.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS.  THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND THE PREFERRED SOLUTION TODAY.  SPECIFICALLY
THE NAM IS DEEPER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE GULF LOW THU THAN THE
GFS/UKMET.  THE NAM APPEARS MUCH TO DRY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AND THU.  RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND 60 HOURS.

.WEATHER.  RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN TO
KODIAK TONIGHT AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST SOUTH CENTRAL AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THU AND THU NIGHT.  EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY BY LATE THU DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
AND WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH STALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THU
NIGHT. RAIN FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE .50 OR LESS IN THE VALLEY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND NEAR ANCHORAGE.  PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND CORDOVA ARE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION.  UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THU
NIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUND.  WE WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS GIVEN THE HIGH WATER CONDITIONS IN
CORDOVA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING ZONES 145..111..135
MARINE...GALE ZONES 155 138 410 120 350 150

RHH AUG 06