Gale Warning 1048, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON DEC 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET NOW DEPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 40N AND 50N. DEEP LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF
PUSHING INLAND SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. UPSTREAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET QUASISTATIONARY
BUT PHASES WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SHEMYA LATE
TUESDAY BECOMING A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH VICINITY 165W LATE IN THE
WEEK. NOT SURPRISINGLY ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE FROM
THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS THE DOMINANT MODE OF THE HEMISPHERE
REMAINS IN FLUX.

THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF MODERATION FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FIRST SURFACE LOW DRIVES NORTH
INTO BRISTOL BAY. GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EASTWARD...AND LOCAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO THE KUSKOKWIM.

IN THE SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
AREAS IN THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
LOW PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GAP FLOW AND UNUSUALLY HIGH
WAVE HEIGHTS IN A SHORT FETCH. THIS WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 170 175. STORM 172. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180
185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCOTT DEC 06