Gale Warning 1046, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON DEC 25 2006

CORRECTED WATCH WARNING SUMMARY

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COVERS OUR PART OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THIS MORNING...WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AK AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
AT THE SURFACE... A LARGE AND DEEP LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AND A THIRD LOW SOUTH OF
ATTU.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN GULF LOW IS THE LAST ONE IN
THE SERIES OF LOWS THAT HAVE AFFECTED OUR WEATHER OVER THE LAST WEEK
OR SO. A SHORT LIVED PATTERN CHANGE IS IN PROGRESS WHICH WILL ALTER
THE TRAJECTORY OF PACIFIC LOWS HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. INSTEAD OF
TURNING NORTH TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA OR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...THE NEXT LOW CROSSES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO BRISTOL BAY
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND LOW IN THIS NEW PATTERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN HEAD TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND.

THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...SINCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT
SERIES OF LOWS OCCURS WITH THE JET WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN AN
AREA WHERE THE GFS TENDS TO DO A BIT BETTER.

FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING...THE WEAK BERING STRAIT SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. IN THE EXTREME WEST...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL
BRING GALES TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS WITH SNOW. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
EAST IT WILL ALSO DRAW COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED WITH GALES AND SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE AK
PEN. ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING MAY BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG NORTH FLOW WITH
SHOWERS TO THE PRIBILOFS AND TO THE AKPEN INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY EXCEPT FOR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS AS THE BERING STRAIT SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND. NOT
MUCH WILL HAPPEN AGAIN UNTIL THE LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SETS UP A SNOW AND WIND SCENARIO FOR MIDWEEK. THIS MUST BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLOWING SNOW OR EVEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR WED
INTO THU BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW IS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
THIS MORNING. THAT MAY CHANGE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL EAST
OF YAKUTAT AND THE SHIELD MOVES EAST AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
INTO TUE. SOUTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
WILL BRING GALES AND STORMS TO MARINE INTERESTS BY WED. SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN FOR KODIAK DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL REMAIN
ALL SNOW ALONG THE REST OF THE GULF COAST. THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND
EVENT FOLLOWED BY A SNOW EVENT EXISTS FOR ANCHORAGE AND POINTS INLAND
WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 179 180 185
         GALES...155 170 175
         STORMS...172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 06