Gale Warning 1044, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN DEC 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW THAT MOVED ONSHORE LAST NIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAS
DISSIPATED AND BEEN LIFTED NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF HAS BEEN INITIALIZED WELL THIS
MORNING. ALL MODELS HAVE IT TRACKING TOWARD SITKA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THEN MAKING ITS WAY INLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND PARTS EAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
WITH SOME DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ANCHORAGE AND PALMER
AREA DRY.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE BERING SEA TO SWING TOWARD WESTERN
ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THESE LOWS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. THIS UPPER LOW HAS A TROUGH
AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BE PUSHED NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A
WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC BUILDS INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SCENARIO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE
BERING WITH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN UNTIL
IT MOVES NEAR DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
INTO BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS VERY GOOD JET SUPPORT FOR THIS
LOW AS WELL AS THERMAL SUPPORT.

THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...THE POSITION OF THIS LOW IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE ONLY CERTAINTY WOULD BE THAT WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MID WEEK AND COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO
THE GULF AND POINTS IN BETWEEN. THE LOW TO REMAIN PRIMARILY
STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY ONCE IT REACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THURSDAY WITH A STRONG FRONT. THE LOW TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AS
WELL FRIDAY SLOWLY PUSHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOW EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 180 185
         GALE 1132 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN DEC 06