Gale Warning 1022, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE MORE IN SYNC THIS MORNING WITH THE
NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON TODAY. THE GFS ALSO
INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE CURRENT LOW
MOVING UP TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WESTERN CANADA THIS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EXTEND EAST INTO WESTERN
ALASKA TODAY AND MONDAY PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA INTO MONDAY. THE 300 MB JET WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA FEEDING INTO THE PANHANDLE.

AT THE SURFACE THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
HAS MOVED NEAR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND COASTAL AREAS AND CHANCE TO
SHOWERS AS THE PUSHES INLAND AND WEAKENS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
NEARS.

THE NEXT STORM FORMING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER
WITH PRESSURES DOWN NEAR 960 MB OR LOWER.  THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE
TRACK OF THIS STORM.  RIGHT NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS WHICH
BRINGS IT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY 12Z MONDAY.

A MODERATE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BERING THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE  125 130 132 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1114 AM AST SUN DEC 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 AM     HEAVY SNOW       HOMER                   59.64N 151.52W
12/17/2006  E8.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE HOMER POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED THAT AROUND 8 INCHES
            OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ON THE HOMER BLUFF...AND AROUND 6
            INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN TOWN.

1104 AM     HEAVY SNOW       SELDOVIA                59.44N 151.71W
12/17/2006  M14.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN SELDOVIA REPORTED 14 INCHES OF NEW
            SNOW FELL SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

1104 AM     SNOW             SOLDOTNA                60.49N 151.06W
12/17/2006  M2.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE TROOPERS IN SOLDOTNA REPORTED 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

1104 AM     SNOW             KENAI                   60.55N 151.21W
12/17/2006  M3.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN KENAI REPORTED 3.5 INCHES OF NEW
            SNOW OVERNIGHT.

1104 AM     SNOW             KASILOF                 60.33N 151.23W
12/17/2006  M3.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN KASILOF REPORTED 3 INCHES OF NEW
            SNOW STARTING YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING DURING THE
            OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

MCKIM