Gale Warning 1020, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT DEC 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM MODEL HAS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA SO IT IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EAST FOR THE FIRST 24 TO
36 HOURS. BEYOND THIS PERIOD THE GFS APPEARS TO DO A BETTER WITH THE
NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE GULF LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS IS USED IN THE
WEST.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING
SEA WILL EXTEND EAST INTO WESTERN ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY.

DOWN-SLOPING ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, ANCHORAGE AND THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE KENAI PENINSULA SNOW FREE UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM IS
ALMOST ON TOP OF THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT STORM FORMING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE ONE
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TRACK OF THE STORM.

WEST DOMAIN...
THE REMAINS OF THE WEATHER FRONT THAT HIT THE COAST FRIDAY IS SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SHOULD END TONIGHT.

A MODERATE LOW WILL DOMINATE THE BERING THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 125, 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 06