Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.
CUMULUS FIELD HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING UP TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT CAP STRENGTH SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED...WITH AMPLE DRY AIR
NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY HELPING ADD AN INCREASED RISK OF
DOWNBURST WINDS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 07
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TULSA COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA.

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR LIMITED
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE GREATER CHANCES WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH STORMS LIKELY
MOVING WESTWARD AFTER THEY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THESE CONDITIONS OFTEN
LEAD TO LIMITED WARNING LEAD TIME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY WORKERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO RESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGH EARLY WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ069-231930-
ADAIR OK-
150 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 150 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
EAST OF BARON...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...BARON...CHRISTIE...
PROCTOR AND WESTVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
207 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

ARZ011-231945-
MADISON AR-
207 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON

AT 207 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PATRICK...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ST PAUL...COMBS...BRASHEARS...PATRICK...
DELANEY AND CROSSES.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

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