Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 232223
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
524 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKC061-232234-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0278.000000T0000Z-050723T2230Z/
HASKELL OK-
524 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HASKELL COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3506 9535 3524 9521 3532 9536 3528 9545

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC / WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A WEAK
WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AROUND THE MAIN UPPER HIGH. THIS...COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATING THAT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF HAIL IS LIKELY MAKING
IT TO THE GROUND IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...HOWEVER HAVE ONLY RECEIVED A
PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORT SO FAR.

AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SSW WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WILL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS OF WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR TULSA COUNTY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE METRO EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 80 WITH HEAT INDICES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 105.

GFS STILL PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE A BREAK
FROM THE HEAT BEHIND COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY AS CLOUDS/ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 101  79 101 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   76 102  76 101 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   74  99  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   73 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   72  98  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   74  98  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   75 100  75 100 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   74 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
F10   75 100  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   73  99  74  99 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ060.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 21
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TULSA COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...TULSA METROPOLITAN AREA.

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FOR LIMITED
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE GREATER CHANCES WILL
EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...WITH STORMS LIKELY
MOVING WESTWARD AFTER THEY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THESE CONDITIONS OFTEN
LEAD TO LIMITED WARNING LEAD TIME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY WORKERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO RESPOND TO AN INCREASE IN
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGH EARLY WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ067-068-232130-
CHEROKEE OK-WAGONER OK-
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 404 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LOST CITY...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...PEGGS
AND WAGONER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ064-065-232145-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
414 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 414 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF OKFUSKEE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MASON...OKFUSKEE...WELTY AND
BRISTOW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
418 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ058-232145-
OTTAWA OK-
418 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 418 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WYANDOTTE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ076-232200-
LE FLORE OK-
420 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

AT 420 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SUMMERFIELD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SUMMERFIELD AND
FANSHAWE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ074-232200-
HASKELL OK-
426 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL

AT 426 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ENTERPRISE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ENTERPRISE AND
WHITEFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

OKZ064-232215-
CREEK OK-
437 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 437 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF SLICK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRISTOW...SLICK AND
DEPEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.