Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT HAVE PUSHED EASTWARD...SAVE A FEW CELLS
STILL DEVELOPING IN FRANKLIN AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH
AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP
SOME EARLY COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS...BUT BOUNDARY IS
SHALLOW AND EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS BY EARLY TO
MID MORNING.

DIFFICULT DAY AHEAD. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAT. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD END UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BRINGING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INTO THE 102-105 RANGE AT
PEAK HEATING...JUST SHY OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SECOND CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. POSITION OF FRONT STILL ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH NO REAL PUSH TO MOVE IT OUT. STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE BACK INTO THE
2-4J/KG CAPE RANGE...WITH BULK SHEAR ABOUT 20-35KTS INCREASING
NORTH. WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE /NEAR 2 INCHES PW PER NAM/ AND
INSTABILITY TO AGAIN POOL ALONG THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. GFS HAVING FEEDBACK TROUBLE...BUT SUGGESTS THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT TO
SAY ALSO WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL RESIDE...BUT AT THIS TIME
AM THINKING THEY WILL MIX OUT. MODELS GIVING LOTS OF SHORTWAVE
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW. WILL KEEP ISOLD TO SCT AFTERNOON POPS...WITH
THE HIGHER POPS NORTH NEAR THE FRONT. STILL WAITING FOR MAIN
FRONTAL PUSH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL KEEP SCT TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ETA/NAM HAS SLOWED THE FRONT
SOMEWHAT...SO PRECIP MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED MORE HEAVILY INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT ISNT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GRIDS
AND WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE MAINLY
FRI LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT IF MAIN FRONT SLOWS. HAIL AND WIND WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE WELCOME RELIEF TEMP WISE...AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS
IN THE 80S...SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR
SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY.

NO ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 103 TO 105 RANGE TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...COMING TO AN END BY SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)