Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 2002

August 16, 200528 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2005, 10:23 PM CDT for 28 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2005, 10:23 PM CDT (03:23 UTC)
Expired: Aug 17, 2005, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 28 counties

Benson County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Kidder County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 700 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -59 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1373 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 170323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170323 
NDZ000-MTZ000-170530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726...

VALID 170323Z - 170530Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF
WW 726...CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
...AND JET STREAK NORTHEAST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF STORM CLUSTER NOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.  LOW-LEVEL JET IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...AND SHOULD
HELP FOCUS WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z.  THIS IS NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.

WITH CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION ABOVE
FRONTAL ZONE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS TO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT.  EXTENT
OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.  RISK FOR DAMAGE WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY IF LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE.

..KERR.. 08/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

48810363 49160221 48849968 48429880 47419831 46739864
46419992 46590134 46570251 46620391 47190417 48170415

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 16, 7:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Billings, Golden Valley	94 min
Aug 16, 11:35 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Benson, Burleigh, Dunn, Eddy, Foster and 15 more	55 min
Aug 17, 1:03 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Foster and 14 more	87 min
Aug 17, 1:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Grant, Kidder and 10 more	8 hr
Aug 17, 5:18 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Griggs, Kidder and 10 more	117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2005 Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.