Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2005

Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Paducah, KY

November 15, 2005Henderson County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at Nov 15, 2005, 4:20 PM CST for Henderson County, Kentucky. It was in force for 85 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 15, 2005, 4:20 PM CST (22:20 UTC)
Expired: Nov 15, 2005, 5:45 PM CST
In force: 85 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Henderson County, KY

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 15, 5:25 PM CST	FLOOD	Henderson, KY	NUMEROUS ROADS IN COMMUNITY UNDER SEVERAL FEET OF WATER.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 680 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 152222
FFWPAH
KYC101-152345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
420 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.

* UNTIL 545 PM CST.

* AT 418 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR 
ENTERING NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. MULTIPLE DOPPLER RADARS AND GAUGES HAVE 
ALREADY ESTIMATED SIX TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS HENDERSON 
COUNTY...WHICH LED TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  
SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY FLOOD IMMEDIATELY ONCE THE HEAVIEST 
RAIN RESUMES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS....NAMELY IN THE 
CITY OF HENDERSON AND ALONG THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY.

LAT...LON 3789 8790 3766 8772 3767 8743 3775 8740
      3778 8731 3789 8735 3792 8741 3793 8746
      3789 8754 3783 8759 3782 8767 3790 8770

$$

MTF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 15, 1:42 AM CST, 14 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 15, 1:42 AM CST, 14 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES FROM CURRENT TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS
ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE PAH CWA ARE IN A TORNADO WATCH
UNTIL 5AM CST.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ACROSS
AREAS FROM CARTER AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...TO UNION AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...TO UNION AND HENDERSON COUNTIES IN
KENTUCKY. HAVE HAD SOME FLOODING REPORTS...ESPECIALLY URBAN
AREAS...ACROSS AREAS IN THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT
PRECIP...INDICATES HEAVIEST PRECIP AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE PAH
FA AFTER 12Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...BUT WITH HEAVY RAIN ALREADY OCCURRING
AND EXPECTING THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THESE AREAS
IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS LATE
TIME.

ON TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH SPC INCLUDING THE ENTIRE PAH
CWA IN A HIGH RISK...OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION IN
TODAYS ZONES.  GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE
LOW...PUTTING IT OVER STL BY 18Z...BUT OVERALL POSITIONING IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH GFS MAYBE JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM.
LOOKS LIKE PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO VERY EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP ENDING VERY QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  CURRENT GRID TIMING AND
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.  ONLY
TWEAK TO TODAY WILL BE TO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES NOW THAT WE ARE IN A HIGH RISK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY.  AT 07Z...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER...TO NORTH OF PAH...TO JUST NORTH
OF EVV...TEMPS RANGE FROM 68 DEGREES AT PAH AND HOP...TO 48 DEGREES
AT MVN.  TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE ALREADY NEAR OR WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST HIGHS OF THE MAV AND MET...SO WILL LOOK TO THE WARMEST
FWC FOR GUIDANCE.  OVERALL EXPECT TO GO WITH A MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW.  TEMPS WILL
FALL TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN WE HAVE BEEN HAVING...WHICH WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL.

GFS DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK...DRY COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER SATURDAY NIGHT.  SO FAR
ONLY EFFECTS LOOK LIKE MAYBE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT...BASED
ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STICKING PRETTY CLOSE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV VALUES.  IN THE EXTENDED...MADE SOME VERY MINOR
TWEAKS LATE IN THE EXTENDED BASED ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

RST

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 15, 3:55 AM CST, 12 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
355 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WARM...MOIST AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. STORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS. THE GROUND
IS SATURATED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO FLOODING MAY STILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

RST

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:58 PM CST, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
358 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND GST     METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
11/15/2005  60 MPH           MASSAC             IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED ON INTERSTATE 24 AND THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:59 PM CST, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND GST     RIDGWAY                 37.80N 88.26W
11/15/2005  65 MPH           GALLATIN           IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 4:05 PM CST, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
405 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W HARRISBURG          37.74N 88.62W
11/15/2005  65 MPH           SALINE             IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            65 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED 4 MILES WEST HARRISBURG BY
            SALNE COUNTY 911.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 4:06 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RALEIGH                 37.83N 88.53W
11/15/2005                   SALINE             IL   AIRPLANE PILOT

            FARM BUILDING DESTROYED NEAR RAYLEIGH. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 4:06 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RALEIGH                 37.83N 88.53W
11/15/2005                   SALINE             IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FARM BUILDING DESTROYED NEAR RAYLEIGH. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 4:18 PM CST, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
418 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TORNADO          CALHOUN                 37.54N 87.26W
11/15/2005                   MCLEAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED NEAR CALHOUN AT KENTUCKY HIGHWAYS 136
            AND 1046.

&&

MATTF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 14, 11:26 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union	49 min
Nov 15, 12:15 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	3 hr
Nov 15, 1:34 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	3 hr
Nov 15, 4:26 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	3 hr
Nov 15, 7:09 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	3 hr
Nov 15, 12:58 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle	32 min
Nov 15, 1:11 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Fulton, Hickman	34 min
Nov 15, 1:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	McCracken	34 min
Nov 15, 1:32 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Graves	28 min
Nov 15, 1:50 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Livingston	25 min
Nov 15, 1:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway, Marshall	34 min
Nov 15, 2:02 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Graves	14 min
Nov 15, 2:03 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Marshall	87 min
Nov 15, 2:05 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Crittenden	25 min
Nov 15, 2:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Lyon, Marshall	35 min
Nov 15, 2:28 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Union	37 min
Nov 15, 2:49 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Caldwell	26 min
Nov 15, 2:49 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Henderson	56 min
Nov 15, 2:57 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Carlisle, Hickman	48 min
Nov 15, 3:01 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway	17 min
Nov 15, 3:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Ballard	37 min
Nov 15, 3:12 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins	33 min
Nov 15, 3:30 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Trigg	30 min
Nov 15, 3:42 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hopkins, McLean	18 min
Nov 15, 3:55 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	McLean	23 min
Nov 15, 4:06 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess	39 min
Nov 15, 4:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Crittenden, Livingston, Union	50 min
Nov 15, 4:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson	41 min
Nov 15, 4:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Henderson	32 min
Nov 15, 4:49 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Todd	29 min
Nov 15, 5:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson	31 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2005 Every flash flood warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.