Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CST FRI APR 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE PENSACOLA REGIONAL HAS PICKED UP OVER 10 INCHES WITH SIMILIAR
AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RAIN WILL REMAIN IN PICTURE UNTIL COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN JUST BEFORE NOON OVER
MISSISSIPPI...COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR INTERSTATE 65 JUST AFTER NOON
AND EAST OF DESTIN JUST AFTER DARK. CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM...WOULDNT SUPRISE ME TO SEE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
WATCHES THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. FRONT BRINGS DRIER
AND COOLER/COLDER AIR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING WITH
WIND REMAINING UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BREEZY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANOTHER
SYSTEM CROSSES FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT NOT AS COOL.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS MARINE
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS TO GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP
SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE ALL THE RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE...GUIDANCE
HAS DEW POINTS LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE.
DIFFICULT TO SEE REAL LOW HUMIDITY WITH STANDING WATER ALL OVER THE
PLACE./11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  49  66  40 /  90  10   0   0
PENSACOLA   75  49  70  43 /  90  20   0   0
DESTIN      70  51  71  46 /  90  30   0   0
EVERGREEN   74  45  67  37 /  90  20   0   0
WAYNESBORO  70  44  68  36 /  90  10   0   0
CAMDEN      72  45  66  38 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ630-650-670. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
     UNTIL NOON ALZ051>064.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ655-675. FLASH FLOOD WATCH  UNTIL
     NOON FLZ001>006.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CST FRI APR 1 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-011706-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
507 AM CST FRI APR 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS AN UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA TODAY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL FEED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE WIND PROFILE ALSO INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. FLOODING OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF STONE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL BE
LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE TO BRING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES TO ALREADY SATURATED AREAS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGING EAST OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO WINDS GUSTING TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE STORMS CROSSING SOME AREAS MEANS
THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY.

THE STRONG ONSHORE...THEN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A ROUGH SURF
AND CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
150 AM CST FRI APR 1 2005

ALZ052-053-010815-
WASHINGTON-CLARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GROVE HILL...
150 AM CST FRI APR 1 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER WASHINGTON AND CLARKE
COUNTIES...

AT 145 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAWTHORN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LEROY...PRESTWICK...JACKSON...WINN...WALKER SPRINGS AND ALLEN THROUGH
215 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.