Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE
18Z...PER TRENDS INDICATED BY LOCAL RADAR DATA. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN A REGION OF THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY AND BEST FORCING.

A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  FORCING ASSOCIATED THIS FEATURE
WILL BE WEAK...EXPECT A PRONOUNCED DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION CHANGES GRADUALLY TO A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY
12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BARELY NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT AT
THE SURFACE DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
FORECAST TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  73  93 /  30  30  30  20
HARRISON AR       68  85  70  89 /  40  40  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  91  73  93 /  30  30  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     73  91  74  93 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  85  70  89 /  40  40  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     73  92  73  94 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         72  90  73  92 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  91  73  93 /  30  30  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  90  72  91 /  30  30  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM....32

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