Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
206 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF MY NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THE REST OF MY
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THE OVERALL MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
IMPRESSIVE. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD SPREAD INTO
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS TOMORROW IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY.(38)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  93  73  94 /  30  40  20  20
HARRISON AR       69  86  69  90 /  50  50  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  93  72  94 /  30  40  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  86  70  89 /  50  50  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     75  95  73  95 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         73  92  72  93 /  30  40  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      73  93  72  94 /  30  40  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  91  71  92 /  40  40  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1007 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1007 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY. CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN...WHICH WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR THE LATEST GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS...PLEASE
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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