Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 132126
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
426 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

ILC013-083-132200-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-050613T2200Z/
JERSEY IL-CALHOUN IL-
426 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR 
CALHOUN AND JERSEY COUNTIES...

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE OVER BATCHTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
NUTWOOD...HARDIN...FIELDON...OTTERVILLE...MCCLUSKY AND JERSEYVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

LAT...LON 3901 9016 3901 9026 3892 9031 3898 9049
      3896 9065 3916 9069 3919 9065 3921 9061
      3912 9061 3918 9057 3917 9032 3922 9030
      3922 9021 3925 9016

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
145 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. CAP LAPS DATA INDICATED
LIS OF -5 TO -7 ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE CAPES HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. CAP WAS RAPIDLY ERODING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
REGION.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH MOISTURE FIELDS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
WITH KS FORECAST BELOW 20 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z.

HIGHER 850 MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID TEEN C
DEWPOINTS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT IS FORECAST BY
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH AREA OF ADVECTION MOVING OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER 850 MB AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN
FORECASTSING 10C TO 12C TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UKMET AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA.

H5 SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING SYSTEM
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA/OHIO VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE 13/00Z RUN OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE
12/06Z RUN OF THE DGEX ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP
TROF OR CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASATERN U.S. AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
345 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
345 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.  WHILE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...ENOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             QUINCY                  39.93N 91.39W
06/13/2005  1.00 INCH        ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VARIED FROM PEAS TO QUARTERS

&&

SDD