Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 132041
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

MOC113-219-132115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-050613T2115Z/
WARREN MO-LINCOLN MO-
341 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 333 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL 
OVER WRIGHT CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  A TRAINED STORM 
SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL IN WRIGHT CITY AT APPROXIMATELY 
335 PM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
WINFIELD AND FOLEY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

LAT...LON 3912 9070 3904 9071 3894 9068 3894 9078
      3889 9082 3891 9094 3889 9097 3879 9099
      3873 9108 3884 9118 3918 9073

$$

CARNEY

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 132055
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
354 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

MOC219-132104-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-050613T2115Z/
WARREN MO-
354 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WARREN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 354 PM WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORM HAD 
MOVED OUT OF WARREN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3912 9070 3904 9071 3895 9068 3895 9077
      3890 9081 3891 9094 3887 9098 3888 9111
      3917 9073

$$

MOC113-132115-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-050613T2115Z/
LINCOLN MO-
354 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 349 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL
OVER MOSCOW MILLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
WINFIELD AND FOLEY.

TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3912 9070 3904 9071 3895 9068 3895 9077
      3890 9081 3891 9094 3887 9098 3888 9111
      3917 9073

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
145 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. CAP LAPS DATA INDICATED
LIS OF -5 TO -7 ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE CAPES HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. CAP WAS RAPIDLY ERODING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
REGION.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH MOISTURE FIELDS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
WITH KS FORECAST BELOW 20 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z.

HIGHER 850 MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID TEEN C
DEWPOINTS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT IS FORECAST BY
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH AREA OF ADVECTION MOVING OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER 850 MB AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN
FORECASTSING 10C TO 12C TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UKMET AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA.

H5 SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING SYSTEM
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA/OHIO VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE 13/00Z RUN OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE
12/06Z RUN OF THE DGEX ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP
TROF OR CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASATERN U.S. AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ADDITIONAL THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD AND
INTENSIFYING.  THE STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.  WHILE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...ENOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BYRD