Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

...ACTIVE WX NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
TORNADOES.

THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES.

AT MID AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...
SOME TORNADIC WAS ENTERING LMK FA AND WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A SECOND LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY CATCH
UP WITH THE FIRST LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LINES
MERGE.

THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF CURRENT MOVEMENT...NAM AND RUC
FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOST AS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER
MORNING LOWS AS BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM  (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOW
WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

SCHOLZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-160930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
220 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO GLASGOW
...WITH A MODERATE RISK ELSEWHERE...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AT LEAST 2 LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
THAT SEVERAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINES WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADIC STORMS WITH THE FIRST LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WOULD BE WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISON
INDIANA TO LOUISVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN.

THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...A SECOND LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO
CROSS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
LARGE HAIL IS A LESSER THREAT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE NEAR
I-65 BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 9 PM EST AND APPROACHING THE I-75
CORRIDOR BY 11 PM EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...MEDIA...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION...AND BE
PREPARED FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KIRKPATRICK

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