Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

...ACTIVE WX NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
TORNADOES.

THE DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES.

AT MID AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...
SOME TORNADIC WAS ENTERING LMK FA AND WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A SECOND LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY CATCH
UP WITH THE FIRST LINE. SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE LINES
MERGE.

THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF CURRENT MOVEMENT...NAM AND RUC
FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOST AS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER
MORNING LOWS AS BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM  (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOW
WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

SCHOLZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-160930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
715 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS EVENING
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO GLASGOW ...WITH A
MODERATE RISK TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AT LEAST 2 LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL THAT SEVERAL STORMS
WITHIN THE LINES WILL BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADIC STORMS
WITH THE FIRST LINE EARLY EVENING WOULD BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
MADISON INDIANA TO LOUISVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN.

THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...A SECOND LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO
CROSS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
LARGE HAIL IS A LESSER THREAT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE NORTHERN PART OF I-65 BY 11 PM AND APPROACHING THE I-75 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...MEDIA...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION...AND BE
PREPARED FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SCHOLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
651 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ADAIRVILLE          36.68N 86.85W
11/15/2005                   LOGAN              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. A BARN WAS DESTROYED ON SAWYER ROAD. A
            MOBILE HOME WAS BLOWN ONTO HIGHWAY 100.

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALEENE                 38.43N 86.40W
11/15/2005                   ORANGE             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES WERE DOWNED.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
659 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TORNADO          BRETZVILLE              38.30N 86.87W
11/15/2005                   DUBOIS             IN   UNKNOWN

            THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR ST.
            ANTHONY AND BRETZVILLE. THE REPORT WAS MADE TO BROADCAST
            MEDIA AND RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS.

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                36.73N 86.57W
11/15/2005                   SIMPSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
659 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

KYZ074-160100-
BARREN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GLASGOW
559 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS ABOUT TO IMPACT BARREN COUNTY...
A POWERFUL THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH
OF BARREN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF GLASGOW...BETWEEN 600 PM
AND 645 PM CST. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST. IF
THIS STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA GET TO A SAFE PLACE IMMEDIATELY

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
722 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSVILLE             36.75N 86.20W
11/15/2005                   ALLEN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE DOWN ON OLD HIGHWAY 231.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
734 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     WICKLIFFE               38.37N 86.63W
11/15/2005  70 MPH           CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
745 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             PLUM SPRINGS            37.02N 86.38W
11/15/2005  0.75 INCH        WARREN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKFIELD               36.90N 86.55W
11/15/2005                   WARREN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLES WERE DOWN IN ROCKFIELD AND ALSO IN BROWNING.

&&

MRC