Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WHILE A PEEK AT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS SOME INTERESTING
FEATURES. A SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD ALONG THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. NUMEROUS
TSTMS ARE NOW IN THE NERN GULF. THIS IMPULSE HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITH
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO MARION COUNTY. AT THIS HOUR LIGHTNING
REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GFS DOES WELL WITH INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND WARM FRONT...AND SHOWS IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION PRODUCING
INTENSE LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. MODERATE LLVL JET AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS BY AFTN. LIKELY
POPS EXPECTED FOR SRN TIER TAPERING TO 40% FOR SE GA. TONIGHT WILL
BRING A LULL IN ACTIVITY.

STORMS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN IN SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS. IN A NUTSHELL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUMP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION CREATING VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NWD...THEN ON SUNDAY A SQUALL LINE WITH MORE STRONG STORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS THE EAST COAST
ON MONDAY DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SE OF THE AREA. DRIER AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. NO HEADLINES FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  59  81  63 /  40  20  30  60
SSI  73  62  75  63 /  40  20  30  60
JAX  79  63  80  64 /  40  20  40  50
SGJ  78  65  76  66 /  50  20  40  50
GNV  80  63  82  65 /  50  20  40  40
OCF  80  64  83  66 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX....CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
603 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
603 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST...

A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF STRONG DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO
STATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS...WATCHES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE WHEN STORMS ARE IN THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1033 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ025-251615-
DUVAL FL-
1033 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 1115 AM
EST...

AT 1033 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAIFORD...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...NORMANDY AND ORTEGA
THROUGH 1115 AM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ033-251615-

ST. JOHNS FL-
1048 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 1115 AM EST...

AT 1048 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF ELKTON...OR ABOUT 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPUDS...ELKTON...DUPONT
CENTER...ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTH...ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH...ST. AUGUSTINE
SHORES...BUTLER BEACH AND CRESCENT BEACH THROUGH 1115 AM EST. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

WOLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1117 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ031-251645-
BRADFORD FL-
1117 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
BRADFORD COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
1145 AM EST...

AT 1117 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER BRADFORD COUNTY...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF MELROSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS JUST WEST OF
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS THROUGH 1145 AM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1128 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ037-251715-
PUTNAM FL-
1128 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PUTNAM
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 1215 PM
EST...

AT 1128 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF PUTNAM HALL...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MELROSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
PUTNAM HALL...FLORAHOME AND CARRAWAY THROUGH 1215 PM EST. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1157 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ036-251730-
ALACHUA FL-
1157 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ALACHUA
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 1230 PM
EST...

AT 1157 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORANGE HEIGHTS...OR
ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF MELROSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ORANGE HEIGHTS
THROUGH 1230 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1208 PM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDDLEBURG              30.05N 81.90W
03/25/2005                   CLAY               FL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOF DAMAGE TO HOUSE.

0645 AM     HAIL             SURRENCY                31.72N 82.20W
03/25/2005  0.88 INCH        APPLING            GA   PUBLIC

1205 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     PALATKA                 29.65N 81.66W
03/25/2005                   PUTNAM             FL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DEESE