Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WHILE A PEEK AT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS SOME INTERESTING
FEATURES. A SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD ALONG THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. NUMEROUS
TSTMS ARE NOW IN THE NERN GULF. THIS IMPULSE HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITH
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO MARION COUNTY. AT THIS HOUR LIGHTNING
REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GFS DOES WELL WITH INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND WARM FRONT...AND SHOWS IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION PRODUCING
INTENSE LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. MODERATE LLVL JET AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS BY AFTN. LIKELY
POPS EXPECTED FOR SRN TIER TAPERING TO 40% FOR SE GA. TONIGHT WILL
BRING A LULL IN ACTIVITY.

STORMS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN IN SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS. IN A NUTSHELL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUMP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION CREATING VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NWD...THEN ON SUNDAY A SQUALL LINE WITH MORE STRONG STORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS THE EAST COAST
ON MONDAY DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SE OF THE AREA. DRIER AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. NO HEADLINES FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  59  81  63 /  40  20  30  60
SSI  73  62  75  63 /  40  20  30  60
JAX  79  63  80  64 /  40  20  40  50
SGJ  78  65  76  66 /  50  20  40  50
GNV  80  63  82  65 /  50  20  40  40
OCF  80  64  83  66 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX....CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 PM EST THU MAR 24 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
940 PM EST THU MAR 24 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO
STATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS...WATCHES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MAY BE REQUESTED
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.