Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WHILE A PEEK AT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS SOME INTERESTING
FEATURES. A SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD ALONG THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA. NUMEROUS
TSTMS ARE NOW IN THE NERN GULF. THIS IMPULSE HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITH
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO MARION COUNTY. AT THIS HOUR LIGHTNING
REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...GFS DOES WELL WITH INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND WARM FRONT...AND SHOWS IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION PRODUCING
INTENSE LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. MODERATE LLVL JET AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS BY AFTN. LIKELY
POPS EXPECTED FOR SRN TIER TAPERING TO 40% FOR SE GA. TONIGHT WILL
BRING A LULL IN ACTIVITY.

STORMS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN IN SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS. IN A NUTSHELL...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUMP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION CREATING VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NWD...THEN ON SUNDAY A SQUALL LINE WITH MORE STRONG STORMS
PRECEDING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS THE EAST COAST
ON MONDAY DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SE OF THE AREA. DRIER AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. NO HEADLINES FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  59  81  63 /  40  20  30  60
SSI  73  62  75  63 /  40  20  30  60
JAX  79  63  80  64 /  40  20  40  50
SGJ  78  65  76  66 /  50  20  40  50
GNV  80  63  82  65 /  50  20  40  40
OCF  80  64  83  66 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX....CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
603 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
603 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST...

A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF STRONG DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO
STATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS...WATCHES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE WHEN STORMS ARE IN THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
522 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ020-GAZ162-251045-

ECHOLS GA-HAMILTON FL-
522 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAMILTON AND
ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
545 AM EST...

AT 522 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER HAMILTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF JASPER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEEDMORE THROUGH 545 AM EST. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS ONE HALF INCH HAIL.
UNPLUG COMPUTERS...TELEVISION SETS...AND OTHER HOME APPLIANCES AS
THEY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

TRABERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
637 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

GAZ165-166-251215-
COASTAL CAMDEN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-
637 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 715 AM EST...

AT 637 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES WEST OF COLESBURG...OR ABOUT 9
MILES EAST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND COLESBURG...WOODBINE...
HARRIETTS BLUFF...HIGH POINT AND DOVER BLUFF THROUGH 715 AM EST. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
704 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

GAZ153-251230-
INLAND GLYNN GA-
704 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GLYNN COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 730 AM EST...

AT 704 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER EVERETT...OR ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF
DARIEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND EVERETT THROUGH 730 AM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

FLZ035-251300-

GILCHRIST FL-
705 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GILCHRIST COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 800 AM EST...

AT 705 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES WEST OF
TRENTON...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF CROSS CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND TRENTON THROUGH 800 AM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

GAZ149-251330-

ATKINSON GA-
736 AM EST FRI MAR 25 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ATKINSON COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 830 AM EST...

AT 736 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PEARSON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKELAND...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND PEARSON AND AXSON THROUGH 830 AM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE