Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AS WELL AS RAINFALL/POTENTIAL FLOODING..

EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE FRONT, FROM NEAR HUTCHINSON TO TOPEKA, WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING, AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAPID/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH HIGH CAPE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ALONG PREFERENTIAL BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN
THREAT MAY WELL EVOLVE INTO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING, AS MUCH OF THIS
AREA STILL RECOVERING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINS DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
ALTHOUGH THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE RIGHT IDEA ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS IT DEPICTS. THE GFS AND ETA
BOTH SUGGEST ELEVATED FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT NORTH
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO EXPECT THAT CONVECTION
MAY RE-DEVELOP/EVOLVE NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT. ALL SAID, WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A PARSONS TO NEWTON TO SALINA LINE.

WILL MAINTAIN MODEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THIS COULD BE THE RELATIVE LULL BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT-
WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST AT THAT TIME, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRANSLATING ALONG BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FOCUS
AND LIFT FOR LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTION, AFFECTING CENTRAL AND MOST
PROBABLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL.

THIS OCCASIONALLY WET/STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW SUGGESTING CHANCES MAY CONTINUE AREA-WIDE INTO
MONDAY. FOR NOW MADE LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY, THOUGH LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  93  71  90 /  30  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      68  93  69  89 /  40  20  30  40
NEWTON          68  92  70  89 /  40  20  30  40
ELDORADO        70  92  71  89 /  40  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  93  73  92 /  30  20  30  40
RUSSELL         64  90  66  86 /  20  30  40  40
GREAT BEND      64  91  66  87 /  20  30  40  40
SALINA          68  92  70  89 /  60  30  40  40
MCPHERSON       68  92  69  89 /  60  30  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  90  72  88 /  30  20  30  30
CHANUTE         70  89  70  87 /  50  20  30  30
IOLA            69  89  70  87 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...
ELK...GREENWOOD...HARVEY...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEOSHO...
SALINE...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
342 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, MAINLY EAST OF A MARION TO
WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TRACK ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. SINCE SOIL
MOISTURE IS HIGH AND GROUNDS NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS,
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A STORM CAN ALSO LOOK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

STORMS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH,
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA, AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
OCCUR FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAUSING FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COULD BECOME THE GREATER HAZARD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND
FUTURE OUTLOOKS ON THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/CJ/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             HYMER                   38.48N 96.68W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        CHASE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BRW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
929 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ053-090330-
CHASE-
929 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHASE COUNTY...

AT 928 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF MATFIELD GREEN...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF COTTONWOOD FALLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SEDLOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
934 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ071-072-095-096-090400-
ALLEN-NEOSHO-WILSON-WOODSON-
934 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALLEN...NEOSHO...WILSON AND WOODSON COUNTIES...

AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRIDLEY TO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MORAN...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SEDLOCK

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