Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1016 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.MESO UPDATE...

CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT BUT A SURGE SOUTHWARD HAS BEGUN
TO TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST KS, AS A DEEP COLD POOL IS PUSHING
ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD. WOULD EXPECT THE SAME SOUTHWARD SURGE TO
EVENTUALLY OCCUR FOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS
LATER ON. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN INCREASING ON THE
LAMONT AND NEODESHA PROFILERS. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MCS. THE CONCERN IS THAT
THE COLD POOL COULD BECOME DEEP ENOUGH AND BLOCK SOME OF THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS IT INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THUS
CREATING A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY WHERE REDEVELOPMENT COULD
OCCUR. POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS ALONG THIS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

JAKUB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005/

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AS WELL AS RAINFALL/POTENTIAL FLOODING..

EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE FRONT, FROM NEAR HUTCHINSON TO TOPEKA,
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING, AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAPID/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH HIGH CAPE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ALONG PREFERENTIAL BOUNDARIES.
THE MAIN THREAT MAY WELL EVOLVE INTO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING, AS
MUCH OF THIS AREA STILL RECOVERING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINS DURING THE
PAST WEEK OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE RIGHT IDEA ON
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT LARGE SCALE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS IT
DEPICTS. THE GFS AND ETA BOTH SUGGEST ELEVATED FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT, SO EXPECT THAT CONVECTION MAY RE-DEVELOP/EVOLVE NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. ALL SAID, WILL ISSUE
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A PARSONS TO
NEWTON TO SALINA LINE.

WILL MAINTAIN MODEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THIS COULD BE THE RELATIVE LULL BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST AT THAT TIME, WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING ALONG BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE NEEDED FOCUS AND LIFT FOR LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTION, AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND MOST PROBABLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL.

THIS OCCASIONALLY WET/STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW SUGGESTING CHANCES MAY CONTINUE
AREA-WIDE INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW MADE LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY,
THOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  93  71  90 /  30  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      68  93  69  89 /  40  20  30  40
NEWTON          68  92  70  89 /  40  20  30  40
ELDORADO        70  92  71  89 /  40  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  93  73  92 /  30  20  30  40
RUSSELL         64  90  66  86 /  20  30  40  40
GREAT BEND      64  91  66  87 /  20  30  40  40
SALINA          68  92  70  89 /  60  30  40  40
MCPHERSON       68  92  69  89 /  60  30  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  90  72  88 /  30  20  30  30
CHANUTE         70  89  70  87 /  50  20  30  30
IOLA            69  89  70  87 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...
ELK...GREENWOOD...HARVEY...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEOSHO...
SALINE...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

99/DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
342 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, MAINLY EAST OF A MARION TO
WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TRACK ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. SINCE SOIL
MOISTURE IS HIGH AND GROUNDS NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS,
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A STORM CAN ALSO LOOK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

STORMS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH,
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA, AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
OCCUR FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAUSING FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COULD BECOME THE GREATER HAZARD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND
FUTURE OUTLOOKS ON THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/CJ/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     HAIL             7 SE HUTCHINSON         37.99N 97.83W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1208 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
06/09/2005                   HARVEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REPORTED IN ALL LOCATIONS OF THE
            CITY OF NEWTON. MOST ROADS ARE CLOSED IN AND OUT OF THE
            CITY. LAW ENFORCEMENT STARTING SOME EVACUATIONS.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT HOPE              37.87N 97.66W
06/09/2005                   SEDGWICK           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER REPORTED OVER THE ROAD AT 295TH STREET WEST AND
            85TH STREET NORTH TO 101ST NORTH.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     HAIL             PRETTY PRAIRIE          37.78N 98.02W
06/09/2005  1.00 INCH        RENO               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SEDGWICK                37.92N 97.43W
06/09/2005                   HARVEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SANDBAGGING COUNTY MAINTAINCE BUILDING.

&&

BRW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

KSZ069-083-090545-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-
1216 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 1211 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARK CITY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
WICHITA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TOWNS OF BEL AIRE...EAST WICHITA...ANDOVER...AND BENTON ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO