Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS AS WELL AS RAINFALL/POTENTIAL FLOODING..

EXTREME INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE FRONT, FROM NEAR HUTCHINSON TO TOPEKA, WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING, AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAPID/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH HIGH CAPE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ALONG PREFERENTIAL BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN
THREAT MAY WELL EVOLVE INTO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING, AS MUCH OF THIS
AREA STILL RECOVERING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINS DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
ALTHOUGH THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE RIGHT IDEA ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT LARGE SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS IT DEPICTS. THE GFS AND ETA
BOTH SUGGEST ELEVATED FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP/SHIFT NORTH
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO EXPECT THAT CONVECTION
MAY RE-DEVELOP/EVOLVE NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
NIGHT. ALL SAID, WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A PARSONS TO NEWTON TO SALINA LINE.

WILL MAINTAIN MODEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
THIS COULD BE THE RELATIVE LULL BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM AFFECTS
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT-
WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT NORTHEAST AT THAT TIME, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRANSLATING ALONG BOUNDARY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FOCUS
AND LIFT FOR LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTION, AFFECTING CENTRAL AND MOST
PROBABLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL.

THIS OCCASIONALLY WET/STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW SUGGESTING CHANCES MAY CONTINUE AREA-WIDE INTO
MONDAY. FOR NOW MADE LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY, THOUGH LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  93  71  90 /  30  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      68  93  69  89 /  40  20  30  40
NEWTON          68  92  70  89 /  40  20  30  40
ELDORADO        70  92  71  89 /  40  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  93  73  92 /  30  20  30  40
RUSSELL         64  90  66  86 /  20  30  40  40
GREAT BEND      64  91  66  87 /  20  30  40  40
SALINA          68  92  70  89 /  60  30  40  40
MCPHERSON       68  92  69  89 /  60  30  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  90  72  88 /  30  20  30  30
CHANUTE         70  89  70  87 /  50  20  30  30
IOLA            69  89  70  87 /  60  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BUTLER...CHASE...
ELK...GREENWOOD...HARVEY...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEOSHO...
SALINE...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
342 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, MAINLY EAST OF A MARION TO
WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TRACK ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO. SINCE SOIL
MOISTURE IS HIGH AND GROUNDS NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS,
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A STORM CAN ALSO LOOK FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

STORMS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS. THOUGH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH,
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA, AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
OCCUR FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAUSING FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COULD BECOME THE GREATER HAZARD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND
FUTURE OUTLOOKS ON THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/CJ/LAWSON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
842 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E ELBING              38.05N 97.09W
06/08/2005                   BUTLER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
843 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             1 S NEWTON              38.03N 97.34W
06/08/2005  1.25 INCH        HARVEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
845 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     FLOOD            1 N SAFFORDVILLE        38.40N 96.40W
06/08/2005                   CHASE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

BRW