Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY...OVER THE MTNS FIRST...THEN
ACROSS PIEDMONT. ATMOS QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN AND RISING. EXPECTING
SOME STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY-MID EVE. WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS FOG DEVELOPING...ESP WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT TOMORROW BUT WITH A BETTER H85 UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP THIS AFTN AND SAT AFTN-EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM NOW ON BOARD WITH THE GFS IN SPREADING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...AND
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR SUNDAY...
WITH SOLID CHANCES ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS/AND
PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SUNDAY TEMPS COULD BE QUITE
COOL...AS REFLECTED IN THE MAV. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER MET NUMBERS...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

BY EARLY-TO-MID WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...WILL
TAPER POPS DOWN TO TOKEN DIURNAL CHANCES BY TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS CWA WITH TSTMS TEMPOED IN AT THE NC
SITES THRU 22Z...CB AND VCTS ALL SITES THRU 00-01Z. HZ STILL A
CONCERN BUT VFR AT ALL BUT KCLT ATTM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN
WITH COOLING BUT COULD SEE ISOLD TSTMS...MAINLY MTNS/FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOG FORECAST FROM 06Z ON BUT COULD GO LOWER IN AREAS
THAT GET RAIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SAT BUT WITH STRONGER S FLOW 0-5K
FT PROVIDING BETTER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-060945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
522 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-052200-
ANDERSON-ELBERT-HART-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...ELBERTON...HARTWELL
522 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM ANDERSON COUNTY INTO
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH INTO HART COUNTY AND
ELBERT COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG IN THE PATH
OF THE STORMS.

BOATERS ON THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE RUSSELL SHOULD SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

MOORE

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