Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SCT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY...OVER THE MTNS FIRST...THEN
ACROSS PIEDMONT. ATMOS QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN AND RISING. EXPECTING
SOME STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY-MID EVE. WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS FOG DEVELOPING...ESP WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT TOMORROW BUT WITH A BETTER H85 UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP THIS AFTN AND SAT AFTN-EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM NOW ON BOARD WITH THE GFS IN SPREADING TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...AND
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO HAVE RETAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR SUNDAY...
WITH SOLID CHANCES ELSEWHERE. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUDS/AND
PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SUNDAY TEMPS COULD BE QUITE
COOL...AS REFLECTED IN THE MAV. FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARMER MET NUMBERS...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

BY EARLY-TO-MID WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER RH WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH...WILL
TAPER POPS DOWN TO TOKEN DIURNAL CHANCES BY TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS CWA WITH TSTMS TEMPOED IN AT THE NC
SITES THRU 22Z...CB AND VCTS ALL SITES THRU 00-01Z. HZ STILL A
CONCERN BUT VFR AT ALL BUT KCLT ATTM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN
WITH COOLING BUT COULD SEE ISOLD TSTMS...MAINLY MTNS/FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR FOG FORECAST FROM 06Z ON BUT COULD GO LOWER IN AREAS
THAT GET RAIN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SAT BUT WITH STRONGER S FLOW 0-5K
FT PROVIDING BETTER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-060945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 S BREVARD             35.21N 82.73W
08/04/2005  0.75 INCH        TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S BREVARD             35.21N 82.73W
08/04/2005                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

            TREES BLOCKING HIGHWAY 276 JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY LIMITS.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             9 W CLAYTON             34.88N 83.56W
08/04/2005  1.75 INCH        RABUN              GA   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR NEARLY 30 MINUTES ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
            LAKE BURTON. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

0254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W CLAYTON             34.88N 83.54W
08/04/2005                   RABUN              GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 76 NEAR PERSIMMON.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1131 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             4 N NEWLAND             36.14N 81.93W
08/04/2005  0.75 INCH        AVERY              NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED
            DIME SIZED HAIL OCCURRED NEAR THE BANNER ELK AND SUGAR
            MOUNTAIN AREA.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-051830-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MACON NC-
MADISON NC-MCDOWELL-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-POLK NC-
RUTHERFORD-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...CHEROKEE...
FRANKLIN...HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...NEWLAND...
RUTHERFORDTON...SPRUCE PINE...SYLVA...TRYON...WAYNESVILLE
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...

AT 125 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF ASHEVILLE...NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY NEAR LITTLE SWITZERLAND...JONAS RIDGE
AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF CALDWELL COUNTY.  THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.  THESE STORMS WILL CROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ASHEVILLE AND SKYLAND VICINITY.  OTHER STORMS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE PARK AND IN THE LAKE TOXAWAY VICINITY.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY
WIND AND SMALL HAIL.  IF ANY OF THE STORMS REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...
YOU MAY EXPECT DAMAGING WIND AND...OR LARGE HAIL OF PENNY SIZED OR
LARGER.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
CROSS THE SAME LOCATION.  IF A PARTICULAR PLACE RECEIVES REPEAT
HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS...FLOODING COULD DEVELOP.

ALSO...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE PRODUCING ALMOST CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             12 NE GAFFNEY           35.19N 81.51W
08/05/2005  0.75 INCH        CLEVELAND          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED NEAR MM 104 ON I-85

&&

LANE