Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1022 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
LOW LEVEL WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS
SHOWING WEAK UPSLOPE HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. FOG
DISSIPATING BUT AREA REMAINS HAZY. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS UNTIL THIS
AFTN BUT INCREASED POPS OVER MTNS BY EARLY AFTN. SCT COVERAGE
STILL LOOKS GOOD...MAINLY MTNS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING QUITE STRONG IN WEAKLY SHEARED BUT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 409 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005)

SHORT TERM (UPDATE FOR TODAY)...
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE MIDLANDS DRIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE. WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE GOING ISO MENTION TO SCT
ACROSS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. ALSO...WILL INCREASE SKY PERCENTAGE
OVER THE SAME AREA...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT WORDING TO CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THIN DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE CLOUD EDGE THIS MORNING...AREAS OF
FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS. WV LOOP
SHOWS A BAND OF VORT DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE CWA...EXPECTING EDGE OF
MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY. H5
RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL EXIST AROUND H6.
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS VORT
MOVES NORTH AND PARCELS OVERCOME INVERSION. A FEW SH/TS COULD
RESPOND TO THE PASSING DISTURBANCE AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING OVER THE
UPSTATE AND NE GA. WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...SCHC EAST. CHC FOR PULSE SEVERE
LOOKS GREATER THAN AVERAGE...WITH A COMPROMISE FORECAST OF L90S T
OVER U60S DWPTS YIELDS CAPES OVER 3K J/KG. SFC DELTA THETA-E REACHES
35 WITH LARGE HAIL GROWTH REGION...FORECAST VIL 55 TO 60. WILL ISSUE
AN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL AND ISO
FLASH FLOODING.

TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT ON THE NAM AND GFS MOVES OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT CLOSED
H5 LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SRN LA/MS/AL OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT
CONVECTION UNTIL 6Z TONIGHT. SAT AND SUN...LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN
EXPECTED AS TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 90 TO U80S. WILL ADVERTISE A SLIGHT
INCREASING TREND IN DIURNAL CHC POPS FROM SAT TO SUN...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CLOSED H5 LOW SHOULD OPEN UP SUN NIGHT AND RIPPLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS MON AND TUE. GFS SHOWS THAT BROAD TROF WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CONDITIONS MOIST
WITH CLIMO TEMPS. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES.

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN TAF SITES WHILE STRATUS
CONTINUES AT KAVL. MVFR BR/HZ WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO FOR IFR BR
MAINLY KAND...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KGSP. THE EXCEPTION IS
KAVL WHERE VLIFR PREVAILS. HAVE ALLOWED KAVL TO RISE TO IFR FROM 08Z
TO 12Z AS OFTEN OCCURS...HOWEVER VLIFR COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. USED PERSISTENCE FOR RETURN TO VFR THIS MORNING...14 OR
15Z. INCLUDED CB ALL TAF SITES ALTHOUGH KAVL CERTAINLY HAS THE BEST
CHC FOR CONVECTION. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SAT...BUT WITH
STAGNANT PATTERN...WILL REVISIT ONSET OF MVFR BR/HZ WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-060945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPSGSP).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 S BREVARD             35.21N 82.73W
08/04/2005  0.75 INCH        TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S BREVARD             35.21N 82.73W
08/04/2005                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

            TREES BLOCKING HIGHWAY 276 JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY LIMITS.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             9 W CLAYTON             34.88N 83.56W
08/04/2005  1.75 INCH        RABUN              GA   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR NEARLY 30 MINUTES ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
            LAKE BURTON. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

0254 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W CLAYTON             34.88N 83.54W
08/04/2005                   RABUN              GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 76 NEAR PERSIMMON.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1131 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             4 N NEWLAND             36.14N 81.93W
08/04/2005  0.75 INCH        AVERY              NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED
            DIME SIZED HAIL OCCURRED NEAR THE BANNER ELK AND SUGAR
            MOUNTAIN AREA.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-051830-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MACON NC-
MADISON NC-MCDOWELL-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-POLK NC-
RUTHERFORD-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...CHEROKEE...
FRANKLIN...HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...NEWLAND...
RUTHERFORDTON...SPRUCE PINE...SYLVA...TRYON...WAYNESVILLE
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...

AT 125 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF ASHEVILLE...NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY NEAR LITTLE SWITZERLAND...JONAS RIDGE
AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF CALDWELL COUNTY.  THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.  THESE STORMS WILL CROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ASHEVILLE AND SKYLAND VICINITY.  OTHER STORMS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE PARK AND IN THE LAKE TOXAWAY VICINITY.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY
WIND AND SMALL HAIL.  IF ANY OF THE STORMS REACH SEVERE CRITERIA...
YOU MAY EXPECT DAMAGING WIND AND...OR LARGE HAIL OF PENNY SIZED OR
LARGER.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
CROSS THE SAME LOCATION.  IF A PARTICULAR PLACE RECEIVES REPEAT
HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS...FLOODING COULD DEVELOP.

ALSO...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE PRODUCING ALMOST CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

CSH