Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
88D TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DEPICT
BLOSSOMING CVRG OF DEEP CONVECTION THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPER RH PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...A MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE CWFA.
WILL CONTINUE TO FCST NUMEROUS TSTM CVRG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC AREAS OF LIFT...BUT BOTH
THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE PCPN RESPONSE LINGERING ACRS NC...
SO WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY CVRG THERE AND DROP POP TO SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

ON FRIDAY...CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS PROBABLE AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA WITH A PRETTY STOUT
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AGAIN...
MODELS LINGER DEEP RH WITHIN THE CWFA AND DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POP ADVERTISING ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS AND GRADUALLY FADES OVER OR
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER TWO INCHES WILL COEXIST WITH THE
FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A GOOD AREA
OF OMEGA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR INTERSTATE 85 FRIDAY NIGHT.  AFTER
THAT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. A FEW INCHES OF RAIN COULD
FALL IN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IF THE FRONT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH GOING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND LOTS OF CLOUDINESS...NO
MORE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS IN MID WEEK THEN PERHAPS
MOVE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING IT FROM GOING NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER RH PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...A
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS
BISECTING THE CWFA COINCIDENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG BECOMING NUMEROUS AND
WILL CARRY AT LEAST TWO TEMPO PERIODS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO
COVER HIGH TSTM PROBABILITIES YET REFLECT TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...SHORT RANGE MODELS PROGGING BETTER
WAA LIFT NORTH OF FRONT AND WILL HANG ONTO SHOWER CHANCES
FURTHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MY NC TAFS. AT THIS POINT...
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING WORSE THAT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-290815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
410 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO LIKELY AND FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 NE PACOLET            34.93N 81.74W
07/28/2005  0.88 INCH        SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND DOWNED 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS. LARGE HAIL IS
            CURRENTLY FALLING.

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
448 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
07/28/2005  1.00 INCH        GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT I-385 AND PLEASANTBURG ROAD. MARBLE
            SIZE AT HAYWOOD MALL.

&&

TJB

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