Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
88D TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DEPICT
BLOSSOMING CVRG OF DEEP CONVECTION THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF
DEEPER RH PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...A MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE CWFA.
WILL CONTINUE TO FCST NUMEROUS TSTM CVRG THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC AREAS OF LIFT...BUT BOTH
THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE PCPN RESPONSE LINGERING ACRS NC...
SO WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY CVRG THERE AND DROP POP TO SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

ON FRIDAY...CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS PROBABLE AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS DIGS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA WITH A PRETTY STOUT
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AGAIN...
MODELS LINGER DEEP RH WITHIN THE CWFA AND DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POP ADVERTISING ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS AND GRADUALLY FADES OVER OR
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER TWO INCHES WILL COEXIST WITH THE
FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A GOOD AREA
OF OMEGA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR INTERSTATE 85 FRIDAY NIGHT.  AFTER
THAT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. A FEW INCHES OF RAIN COULD
FALL IN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

IF THE FRONT REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH GOING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND LOTS OF CLOUDINESS...NO
MORE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS IN MID WEEK THEN PERHAPS
MOVE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING IT FROM GOING NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER RH PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...A
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS
BISECTING THE CWFA COINCIDENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG BECOMING NUMEROUS AND
WILL CARRY AT LEAST TWO TEMPO PERIODS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO
COVER HIGH TSTM PROBABILITIES YET REFLECT TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...SHORT RANGE MODELS PROGGING BETTER
WAA LIFT NORTH OF FRONT AND WILL HANG ONTO SHOWER CHANCES
FURTHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MY NC TAFS. AT THIS POINT...
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING WORSE THAT MVFR RESTRICTIONS
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-290815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
410 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO LIKELY AND FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR REDEVELOP
OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-282000-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-ELBERT-
FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-GRAHAM-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK NC-RABUN-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-UNION NC-
UNION SC-YANCEY-YORK-
1054 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WARMS UP...IN COMBINATION WITH TYPICAL MID-SUMMER HUMIDITY
LEVELS...THE RESULT WILL BE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO
ASSIST IN STORMS GROWING TO RATHER TALL HEIGHTS.

RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DESPITE RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AS WELL.

LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS AND
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE
REMINDED NOT TO ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER MOVING ACROSS A ROADWAY.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.