Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 091315
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXC333-091530-
MILLS TX-
813 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR MILLS
COUNTY...

AT 810 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...EXTENDING 
FROM MULLIN...TO GOLDTHWAITE...TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
COUNTY. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
MULLIN...GOLDTHWAITE...AND STAR.

THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY 
DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED 
ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A COUPLE FEET OF SWIFTLY 
FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3172 9851 3167 9874 3149 9889 3126 9851
      3143 9827

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 091411
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXC333-091530-
MILLS TX-
909 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR MILLS
COUNTY...

AT 905 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY 
RAIN...CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF MILLS COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN 
WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CASTOR...STAR AND SCALLORN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND 3/4 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
MILLS COUNTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING 
OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS 
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL 
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3172 9851 3167 9874 3149 9889 3126 9851
      3143 9827

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 091452
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
952 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXC333-091530-
MILLS TX-
952 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR MILLS
COUNTY...

AT 949 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MILLS 
COUNTY...NEAR PRIDDY AND DEMOCRAT. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. 

THE MILLS COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED SOME COUNTY ROADS UNDER 
WATER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND 3/4 INCH PER HOUR IS 
EXPECTED...AND THE THREAT OF RUNOFF AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STAR...
SCALLORN AND CASTOR.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL 
ONE...ON FOOT. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3172 9851 3167 9874 3149 9889 3126 9851
      3143 9827

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

.AVIATION...
BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED SW OF THE METROPLEX TODAY
NEAR THE CORE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW.  WILL CARRY PREVAILING
THUNDER AND RAIN FOR KACT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR.  VCSH
SHOULD COVER THE METROPLEX SITES THIS MORNING UNTIL HEATING RESULTS
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  BEST APPROACH AT
THIS TIME IS TO UTILIZE VCTS AND NEXT SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
IDEA ON BETTER TIMING.  AFTER 23Z HAVE THUNDER ENDING IN ALL TAFS
WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TR/92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK/WARM-CORE UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
HIGHEST MORNING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.  SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION YESTERDAY...AND
IN ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...WE HAVE ISSUED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE...TO STEPHENVILLE AND WACO.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY...AS STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE
SMALL AND SOME TRAINING WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE MORE ISOLATED AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER...ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...EVEN IN THIS REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE KFWD FORECAST AREA BY THIS
TIME.  WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT MAINTAIN VERY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM
BOTH THE WEST AND THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GIVEN LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT.
DRY CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LENDING CREDENCE TO THIS
IDEA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  MEDIUM RANGE GFSLR/ECMWF GUIDANCE
STILL DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  73  95  75 /  50  30  20  10
WACO, TX              87  72  92  74 /  70  40  20  10
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            93  72  95  74 /  50  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  72  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            92  73  94  75 /  50  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           92  72  94  74 /  50  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  92  74 /  50  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            85  72  91  72 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

65/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
515 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM GENERALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BRECKENRIDGE...TO
STEPHENVILLE...TO WACO...AND TO TEMPLE.  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN
HOUR OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AS ALWAYS...ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER SETTLES IN LATE IN THE
WEEK.  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY.

92