Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 091248
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXC027-091400-
BELL TX-
745 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR WESTERN BELL
COUNTY...

AT 745 AM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN 
OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN BELL COUNTY.  LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS 
ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL VEHICLES STRANDED IN HIGH WATER IN THE CITY OF 
KILLEEN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARKER HEIGHTS AND INTERSTATE 
35 NEAR BELTON AND SALADO.  THE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING EAST AT 10 
MPH.

THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY 
DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED 
ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A COUPLE FEET OF SWIFTLY 
FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

KEEP CHILDREN FROM PLAYING NEAR RUSHING FLOOD WATERS. THE BANKS OF 
STREAMS AND FLOODWAYS ARE SLIPPERY AND RAIN SOFTENED GROUND MAY GIVE 
WAY EASILY. DO NOT LET YOUR CHILD BE A VICTIM OF DANGEROUS FLOOD 
WATERS

LAT...LON 3106 9792 3089 9780 3080 9741 3132 9741

$$

92

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 091328
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
826 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXC027-091400-
BELL TX-
826 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR BELL
COUNTY...

AT 825 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF BELL 
COUNTY.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDED FROM NEAR TROY...TO 
TEMPLE...TO WEST OF SALADO. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOLLAND...TEMPLE AND TROY.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION. FLOODING HAS BEEN 
REPORTED IN KILLEEN...AND IN HARKER HEIGHTS. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING 
PROBLEMS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL 
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. TURN 
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3106 9792 3089 9780 3080 9741 3103 9713
      3132 9741

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

.AVIATION...
BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED SW OF THE METROPLEX TODAY
NEAR THE CORE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW.  WILL CARRY PREVAILING
THUNDER AND RAIN FOR KACT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR.  VCSH
SHOULD COVER THE METROPLEX SITES THIS MORNING UNTIL HEATING RESULTS
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  BEST APPROACH AT
THIS TIME IS TO UTILIZE VCTS AND NEXT SHIFT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
IDEA ON BETTER TIMING.  AFTER 23Z HAVE THUNDER ENDING IN ALL TAFS
WITH NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TR/92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK/WARM-CORE UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
HIGHEST MORNING POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.  SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION YESTERDAY...AND
IN ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...WE HAVE ISSUED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE...TO STEPHENVILLE AND WACO.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY...AS STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE
SMALL AND SOME TRAINING WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE MORE ISOLATED AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER...ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...EVEN IN THIS REGION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...BUT
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE KFWD FORECAST AREA BY THIS
TIME.  WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT MAINTAIN VERY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM
BOTH THE WEST AND THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GIVEN LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT.
DRY CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION LENDING CREDENCE TO THIS
IDEA.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100...BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  MEDIUM RANGE GFSLR/ECMWF GUIDANCE
STILL DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  92  73  95  75 /  50  30  20  10
WACO, TX              87  72  92  74 /  70  40  20  10
PARIS, TX             94  72  96  72 /  30  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            93  72  95  74 /  50  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          93  72  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            92  73  94  75 /  50  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           92  72  94  74 /  50  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  92  74 /  50  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            85  72  91  72 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

65/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
515 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM GENERALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BRECKENRIDGE...TO
STEPHENVILLE...TO WACO...AND TO TEMPLE.  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN
HOUR OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  AS ALWAYS...ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER SETTLES IN LATE IN THE
WEEK.  THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY.

92