Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
510 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY PRIMARY CONCERN. LI VALUES OVER NORTH GA
STILL AROUND -3 TO -4 THIS MORNING AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL (ONLY 20KTS
GROUND-RELATIVE AT H5) BUT SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END SVR CONVECTION.
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL OVERNIGHT BUT NOTHING LARGER
THAN THAT. IF STORMS CURRENTLY IN FAR NE GA DONT BACKBUILD INTO REST
OF NORTH GA...COULD SEE SIZABLE INSTABILITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS MODELS
INDICATE...WILL LIKELY STABILIZE AIRMASS SOME AND PUSH RICH MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA ON AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO FAR SRN ZONES BY THIS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT SLT CHC TO CHC POPS ALL NIGHT FOR SRN 1/2 OF CWA AS WE COULD
SEE ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOP BEHIND STORMS AND AHEAD OF DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPR LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ADVERTISING A QUICK WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS 20-30 FOR NOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SHOWN ON THURS SO HAVE ADDED SLT CHC POPS. MAY BE HARD
TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES IN THIS ZONAL
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOST CEILINGS 5000 FT OR
HIGHER. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUD SATELLITE PRODUCT OBSCURED BY
HIGHER CLOUDS SO IT WILL BE HARD TO TRACK ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS. MOST LOWER CLOUDS AND VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SSW BECOMING W 10 -15 KTS. BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         77  59  73  57 /  90  20  10  10
ATHENS          75  58  73  54 /  90  30  10  10
GAINESVILLE     77  58  72  56 / 100  20  10  10
ROME            77  61  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        81  64  82  59 /  80  30  10  10
MACON           81  61  79  56 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

13 SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1123 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1123 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER WEST GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EAST GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TO SOUTH GEORGIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO MACON.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
JASPER TO MACON.

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CAPES OF 1500-2000 AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 ON
THE WEST SIDE OF GEORGIA BY MIDDAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...AND GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. IF THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOO STABLE...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ062-201045-

618 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN WARREN COUNTY UNTIL
645 AM EDT...

AT 615 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYFIELD OR 5 MILES WEST OF NORRIS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT NORRIS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WARREN COUNTY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ053-054-201600-

1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN COWETA AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EDT...

AT 1130 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THOMAS CROSSROADS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN COWETA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE FAYETTEVILLE AND PEACHTREE CITY. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY BY NOON EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1148 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ066-201615-

1148 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL
1215 PM EDT...

AT 1145 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF LA GRANGE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS IT MOVES ACROSS TROUP COUNTY. DRIVERS
SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY BY 1215 PM EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1156 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ025-201630-

1156 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1149 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALMO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
JACKSON COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY
BY 1230 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1205 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ046>048-201645-

1205 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN NEWTON...ROCKDALE AND WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT NOON EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BOLD SPRINGS TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CONYERS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 1245 PM EDT.