Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
510 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY PRIMARY CONCERN. LI VALUES OVER NORTH GA
STILL AROUND -3 TO -4 THIS MORNING AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL (ONLY 20KTS
GROUND-RELATIVE AT H5) BUT SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END SVR CONVECTION.
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL OVERNIGHT BUT NOTHING LARGER
THAN THAT. IF STORMS CURRENTLY IN FAR NE GA DONT BACKBUILD INTO REST
OF NORTH GA...COULD SEE SIZABLE INSTABILITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY. IF WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS MODELS
INDICATE...WILL LIKELY STABILIZE AIRMASS SOME AND PUSH RICH MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FORCING SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA ON AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO FAR SRN ZONES BY THIS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT SLT CHC TO CHC POPS ALL NIGHT FOR SRN 1/2 OF CWA AS WE COULD
SEE ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOP BEHIND STORMS AND AHEAD OF DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPR LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT. COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ADVERTISING A QUICK WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS 20-30 FOR NOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN SHOWN ON THURS SO HAVE ADDED SLT CHC POPS. MAY BE HARD
TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES IN THIS ZONAL
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MOST CEILINGS 5000 FT OR
HIGHER. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUD SATELLITE PRODUCT OBSCURED BY
HIGHER CLOUDS SO IT WILL BE HARD TO TRACK ANY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS. MOST LOWER CLOUDS AND VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SSW BECOMING W 10 -15 KTS. BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         77  59  73  57 /  90  20  10  10
ATHENS          75  58  73  54 /  90  30  10  10
GAINESVILLE     77  58  72  56 / 100  20  10  10
ROME            77  61  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        81  64  82  59 /  80  30  10  10
MACON           81  61  79  56 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

13 SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1123 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1123 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER WEST GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EAST GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TO SOUTH GEORGIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST AREA
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO MACON.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
JASPER TO MACON.

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CAPES OF 1500-2000 AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 ON
THE WEST SIDE OF GEORGIA BY MIDDAY. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...AND GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. IF THE AIRMASS REMAINS TOO STABLE...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1156 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ025-201630-

1156 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1149 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALMO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
JACKSON COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY
BY 1230 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1205 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ046>048-201645-

1205 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN NEWTON...ROCKDALE AND WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT NOON EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM BOLD SPRINGS TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CONYERS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 1245 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ054-201700-

1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL IN FAYETTE COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PEACHTREE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAYETTEVILLE. DRIVERS
SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY BY 100 PM EDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ038-049-050-201715-

1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS IN GREENE...MORGAN AND OGLETHORPE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SANDY CROSS TO CENTENNIAL...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT OF THE
COUNTY BY 115 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

GAZ059-201715-

1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS IN JASPER COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FARRAR TO 14 MILES WEST OF FARRAR...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR
MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY BY 115 PM EDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1244 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LULA                    34.39N 83.66W
05/20/2005                   HALL               GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAS 52.

1156 AM     HAIL             LA GRANGE               33.04N 85.03W
05/20/2005  0.88 INCH        TROUP              GA   PUBLIC

1150 AM     HAIL             PEACHTREE CITY          33.39N 84.57W
05/20/2005  1.00 INCH        FAYETTE            GA   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL HIGHWAY 74 SOUTH OF CROSSTOWN.

&&

GLB