Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WWUS54 KEWX 081014
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXC171-081045-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-050508T1045Z/
GILLESPIE TX-
513 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 545 AM CDT FOR
GILLESPIE COUNTY...

AT 512 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HARPER...LUCKENBACH AND WILLOW
CITY.

LAT...LON 3047 9926 3018 9927 3017 9864 3047 9869

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
348 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY AHEAD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJOINING COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
UNTIL 9 AM. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR TODAY AS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ENCOUNTER
MOIST INFLOW ON LOW LEVEL JET AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COUPLE OF MCS-S SHOULD FORM AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND CAPE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES DUE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH HIGHER QPF.

TROUGH MOVES EAST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME POPS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CAP AIRMASS. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE
SOME BOUNDARIES ON WHICH TO FOCUS CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH WILL BE
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS
ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL KEEPING AT LEAST THE AIRMASS MOIST,
HOWEVER CAPPING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY GHOST POPS FOR POTENTIAL OF
MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OR STREAMER SHOWERS AS WEAK
SHORT-WAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE.

MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
FRONT SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DEVELOPING SOME TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES NEXT WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  67  89  69 /  80  30  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  65  89  66 /  80  30  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  65  94  70 /  20   0  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  67  89  68 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071010-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-

DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT FROM COLORADO TO THE BIG BEND OF WEST
TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN...SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT OR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SUNDAY.   CAUTION IS ADVISED ON ROADS THAT GET WET AND SLIPPERY FROM
SCATTERED RAINS.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY
WITH WARM EARLY TO MID MAY AFTERNOONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE AREAS OF RAIN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. CAUTION IS ADVISED ON ROADS THAT GET SLIPPERY FROM
RAINS.

A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-080800-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

...CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

A WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT FROM COLORADO TO THE BIG BEND OF WEST
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT GETS CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND MOVES OVER THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN...
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND DURING PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  CAUTION IS ADVISED ON
ROADS THAT GET WET AND SLIPPERY FROM SCATTERED RAINS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG
AND CAUSE SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY OR TUESDAY
WITH WARM EARLY TO MID MAY AFTERNOONS.