Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 082140
FFSEWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXC177-082230-
GONZALES TX-
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR GONZALES
COUNTY...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE COUNTY.
HOWEVER...SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN. BE ALERT 
TO FLOODING OF COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS 
AND STREAMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WAELDER...PALMETO AND GONZALES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
WATER COVERED AREAS. A LITTLE OVER A FOOT OF WATER CAN CARRY AWAY 
MOST CARS AND TRUCKS. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2916 9764 2942 9727 2970 9725 2962 9761
      2938 9781

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1008 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.UPDATE...
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING DEEP CONVECTION TAKING-OFF NOW...WITH
MUCH NEEDED RAIN ON THE WAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND HIGHER
POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWFA. ALSO REESTABLISHED NEAR TERM SKY...TEMP...
DEWPOINT AND WIND TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230 AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A KENEDY TO SAN ANTONIO TO LEAKEY TO MOUNTAIN HOME LINE.
ALSO, WILL REMOVE COUNTIES THAT ARE ONLY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 229. OTHERWISE, ONGOING FORECASTS GENERALLY ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY AHEAD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES
FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJOINING COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
UNTIL 9 AM. HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR TODAY AS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ENCOUNTER
MOIST INFLOW ON LOW LEVEL JET AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A COUPLE OF MCS-S SHOULD FORM AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND CAPE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES DUE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH HIGHER QPF.

TROUGH MOVES EAST OF AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME POPS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMING
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CAP AIRMASS. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE
SOME BOUNDARIES ON WHICH TO FOCUS CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH WILL BE
TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES OVER TEXAS
ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL KEEPING AT LEAST THE AIRMASS MOIST,
HOWEVER CAPPING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY GHOST POPS FOR POTENTIAL OF
MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING DRIZZLE OR STREAMER SHOWERS AS WEAK
SHORT-WAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND
TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE.

MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
FRONT SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
DEVELOPING SOME TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES NEXT WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WET.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

11/03/01/DC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091000-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
527 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH STORMS ENDING BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             6 N BOERNE              29.89N 98.74W
05/08/2005  0.75 INCH        KENDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOCHHEIM                29.32N 97.30W
05/08/2005                   DEWITT             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 183N CLOSED.

0210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      YORKTOWN                28.98N 97.50W
05/08/2005                   DEWITT             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 119 NEAR NEW DAVIES CLOSED.

0212 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S GONZALES            29.48N 97.45W
05/08/2005                   GONZALES           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1/2 MILE OF HWY 183 UNDER ONE FOOT OF WATER.

&&

DC