Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TAFS DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 02Z FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE BIGGEST STORMS.
WILL ALSO HAVE PREDOMINANT SHOWERS IN MBS/FNT CLOSER TO COMMA-HEAD
STRATIFORM PRECIP THAT WILL FOLLOW THE CONVECTION INTO THE AREA.
WILL DELAY THESE SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS IN DTW/DET...BUT STILL
CARRY SHOWERS UNTIL 04Z. THEREAFTER...CLEAR SAILING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION FROM THIS RAINFALL. AS CURRENT DISTURBANCE PASSES...THE
AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE DAYTIME MIXING ON MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT.

MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS JUST GETTING STARTED...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. STRONG DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COUPLING WITH ABJECTION OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM KENTUCKY/OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS FIRED ON LAKE BOUNDARY/OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER...WITH NEXT BATCH ALREADY ON THE HEEL OF THIS ON
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT (30-40KTS) FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY 2000+
J/KG MIXED LAYER...3000+ SFC). TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY OUT AND WILL
SHAPE THE GRIDS TO THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH 00Z.

WOULD EXPECT LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z...MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE
00Z-04Z AREA...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 00Z ON...AND REFINE LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON HOW THIS SVR WX EVENT EVOLVES THIS EVENING.

QUIET TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHTS
WX...BUT TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL OFF ALL THAT MUCH WITH WEST WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WOULD EXPECT MID 80S TO BE PREVALENT WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DONE -VS- TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT.

THE LULL CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL TROFFING IS ALREADY
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...PROMISING TO SET UP AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY FEEDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN RIDGE INTO THIS GENERAL VICINITY. THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE (AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING) WILL BE THE IMPORTANT
PART OF THIS FORECAST...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE WILL BE WAFFLING VERY
CLOSE THE THE CWA. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN THE
WED THRU SAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ATTM APPEARING TO BE
THU/FRI.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN...WILL JUST EDGE THEM BACK A FEW DEGREES AS BASIC PATTERN
HOLDS. THERE DOES REMAIN A HINT OF ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO KNOCK
BACK THE RIDGE SOME MORE...BUT THIS HAS VARIED IN MODEL RUNS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH THIS EXPECTED TRANSITION...WILL TAPER OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE FOCUS TO
SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THAT SAID...12Z GFS HAS ALREADY DELAYED
THIS IDEA FURTHER WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT COOLING UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
LAKE HURON...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
LAKE ST CLAIR...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z

&&

DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-061000-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 THROUGH 6
PM. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BRINGING A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70
MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. IN ADDITION...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO
35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-061000-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE-OUTER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH
MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC
MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON
MI-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR
AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND
LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT
30 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

SF/DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
555 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW SAGINAW            43.47N 84.02W
06/05/2005                   SAGINAW            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNED TREE BRANCHES 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND LARGER.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N SAGINAW               43.42N 83.95W
06/05/2005                   SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4+ INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     BAY CITY                43.59N 83.89W
06/05/2005  80 MPH           BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
615 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OWENDALE                43.73N 83.27W
06/05/2005                   HURON              MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED FROM OWENDALE/PIGEON
            TO PORT AUSTIN BETWEEN 500-530 PM

&&

DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
622 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             VASSAR                  43.37N 83.58W
06/05/2005  1.00 INCH        TUSCOLA            MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
624 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             HEMLOCK                 43.42N 84.23W
06/05/2005  1.75 INCH        SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

SHULER

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