Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
305 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAIN ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS JUST GETTING STARTED...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. STRONG DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COUPLING WITH ABJECTION OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM KENTUCKY/OHIO VALLEY. INITIAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS FIRED ON LAKE BOUNDARY/OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER...WITH NEXT BATCH ALREADY ON THE HEEL OF THIS ON
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT (30-40KTS) FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY 2000+
J/KG MIXED LAYER...3000+ SFC). TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY OUT AND WILL
SHAPE THE GRIDS TO THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH 00Z.

WOULD EXPECT LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z...MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE
00Z-04Z AREA...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 00Z ON...AND REFINE LATER THIS EVENING BASED
ON HOW THIS SVR WX EVENT EVOLVES THIS EVENING.

QUIET TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHTS
WX...BUT TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL OFF ALL THAT MUCH WITH WEST WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WOULD EXPECT MID 80S TO BE PREVALENT WITH THE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DONE -VS- TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LULL CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL TROFFING IS ALREADY
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...PROMISING TO SET UP AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY FEEDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN RIDGE INTO THIS GENERAL VICINITY. THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE (AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING) WILL BE THE IMPORTANT
PART OF THIS FORECAST...AS THE NORTHERN EDGE WILL BE WAFFLING VERY
CLOSE THE THE CWA. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN THE
WED THRU SAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ATTM APPEARING TO BE
THU/FRI.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN...WILL JUST EDGE THEM BACK A FEW DEGREES AS BASIC PATTERN
HOLDS. THERE DOES REMAIN A HINT OF ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO KNOCK
BACK THE RIDGE SOME MORE...BUT THIS HAS VARIED IN MODEL RUNS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH THIS EXPECTED TRANSITION...WILL TAPER OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE FOCUS TO
SETTLE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THAT SAID...12Z GFS HAS ALREADY DELAYED
THIS IDEA FURTHER WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT COOLING UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT.

VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOW LEVEL CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL BE ALL BUT
GONE BY 18Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD INITIATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING CU FIELD. LOOKING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 21-00Z OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. ASSUMING THE STORMS WORK
OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS TONIGHT
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD ASSURE
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SW WINDS PICKING UP DURING THE
MORNING...AS WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO 30 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 925-850 MB.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
LAKE HURON...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
LAKE ST CLAIR...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...TORNADO WATCH 404 IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z

&&

DG/SF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-061000-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69 THROUGH 6
PM. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...BRINGING A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70
MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. IN ADDITION...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO
35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-061000-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE-OUTER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH
MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC
MI-
LAKE HURON OFFSHORE BEYOND 5 NM FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON
MI-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR
AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND
LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT
30 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN
SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

SF/DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             1 E MERRILL             43.41N 84.32W
06/05/2005  0.75 INCH        SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             1 NE LAPORTE            43.51N 84.17W
06/05/2005  1.75 INCH        MIDLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             2 E ESSEXVILLE          43.61N 83.80W
06/05/2005  0.75 INCH        BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY HAIL AT BAY COUNTY COUNTRY CLUB

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             BAY CITY                43.59N 83.89W
06/05/2005  0.75 INCH        BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY HAIL IN NORTHERN BAY CITY

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND GST     BAY CITY                43.59N 83.89W
06/05/2005  55 MPH           BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
401 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             BAY CITY                43.59N 83.89W
06/05/2005  1.00 INCH        BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN BAY CITY

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     BAY CITY                43.59N 83.89W
06/05/2005  60 MPH           BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

&&

SHULER