Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

.UPDATE...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT
CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL EVENTUALLY ENTER THE CWA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS BOTHERSOME AND LENDS CREDENCE TO
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING PENETRATING CONVECTION TOWARD 06Z AND
BEYOND. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE CO-INCIDENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE.

&&

.MARINE...LOW-LEVEL JET AND MESOSCALE INFLOW INTO CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SCA GMZ230-250-255-270-275.

&&

85/UPDATE
86/AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
346 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER TEXAS
COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND
THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...THEREFORE A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY
APPROACH THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...BETWEEN THREE RIVERS AND
VICTORIA LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. HIGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...HURRICANE EMILY WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND UPON
THE POSITION OF HURRICANE EMILY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
806 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

TXZ231-232-150145-
BEE-LIVE OAK-
806 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN BEE AND LIVE OAK
COUNTIES...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF NELL...OR 18 MILES WEST OF
KENEDY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BEE AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES THROUGH
845 PM.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GW