Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 151425
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
923 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXC057-151515-
CALHOUN-
923 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR CALHOUN
COUNTY...

AT 918 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF CALHOUN COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PORT
LAVACA...POINT COMFORT...MAGNOLIA BEACH AND KAMAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

LAT...LON 2833 9640 2820 9665 2823 9666 2828 9660
      2832 9669 2837 9670 2843 9681 2857 9692
      2870 9666 2859 9661 2850 9648 2859 9648
      2864 9657 2869 9657 2870 9640 2863 9632
      2861 9637

$$

94

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
416 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FINALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
FELL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.  RADAR ESTIMATES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS FROM NEAR
ENCINAL TO COTULLA TO THREE RIVERS WITH SOME ISOLATED 4 TO 6 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WEBB AND SOUTHERN LASALLE COUNTIES.
MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FELL ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.  RADAR THIS MORNING
SHOWING REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS COMPLEX OF STORMS STILL SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MAIN UPPER TROF EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.  STRONG S/W
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MAIN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST TX.
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING IN WAKE OF S/W AS SOME DRIER AIR IS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.  LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
HAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER.  WILL
STILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR TODAY...BUT THINK THAT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND
MOVING IT INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORM
MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW (5-10 KTS PER FORECAST WIND
PROFILES).  OF COURSE MAIN CAVEAT TO THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.  IF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPS
EARLIER OR LATER THAN ANTICIPATED...POPS FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED.  LATER SHIFTS CAN ANALYZE THAT FURTHER.  CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A SLOWER WARMUP THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT THINK SKIES WILL BECOME P/C LATER THIS
MORNING AND TEMPS WILL STILL REACH LOW 100S OUT WEST AND MID 90S
EAST.  LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL RESULT IN HIGHS 2-5 DEGS COOLER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
WITH RESPECT TO THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
SUBSEQUENT RIDGING BY MONDAY. OWING TO DECREASING UPPER SUPPORT...
WL LOWER THE POPS DRG THE SUN-MON PERIOD. BASED ON THE TRACK OF
EMILY...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION BY TUESDAY AFTN OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY NGT. AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY WED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY OWING
TO LINGERING MSTR/INSTABILITY. THE PERSISTENT 100F DEGREE MAX TEMP
AT LRD WL LIKELY END WED...AS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AFTN TEMPS
EXPECTED OWING TO COPIOUS MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

CORPUS CHRISTI  094 075 093 076 094 / 40 60 50 30 20
VICTORIA        094 073 093 074 094 / 60 70 60 40 30
LAREDO          104 079 103 079 104 / 20 60 40 40 30
ALICE           098 074 098 075 100 / 40 60 50 30 30
ROCKPORT        093 080 093 080 092 / 40 60 50 30 20
COTULLA         100 073 099 076 102 / 30 70 60 40 30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

91/DUNN...SHORT-TERM
87...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-152100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
553 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOVE INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING
AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...AND COASTAL BEND LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE REGION. HIGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...HURRICANE
EMILY WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DUNN
WC