Tornado Warning 7, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.UPDATE...MAIN BULK OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDE.  EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO
HGX AREA BY LATE MORNING.  MORE TSRA EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS INSOLATION INCREASES INSTABILITY WITH ALREADY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE.  FAIRLY GOOD LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW
STORM MOTIONS.  HWO COVERS THIS THREAT QUITE WELL.  TWEAKED TEMPS
DOWN A BIT OVER THE EAST AND UP A BIT IN THE WEST FOR TODAY AND
ADJUSTED WIND FIELDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.  WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO
THE ZFP SHORTLY.

&&

MARINE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ANOTHER SHOT OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.  SCEC CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING.  SEAS WILL RANGE FROM
2-3 FEET NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOW CIGS...GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST
THIS MORNING BUT THIS WILL NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

CORPUS CHRISTI  095 075 093 076 094 / 40 60 50 30 20
VICTORIA        093 073 093 074 094 / 60 70 60 40 30
LAREDO          105 079 103 079 104 / 20 60 40 40 30
ALICE           099 074 098 075 100 / 40 60 50 30 30
ROCKPORT        092 080 093 080 092 / 40 60 50 30 20
COTULLA         100 073 099 076 102 / 30 70 60 40 30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

94/MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-152100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
553 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOVE INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING
AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...AND COASTAL BEND LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE REGION. HIGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...HURRICANE
EMILY WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DUNN
WC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1134 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PORT ARANSAS            27.83N 97.08W
07/15/2005                   NUECES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TRAILOR PUSHED OVER AT IB MAGEE COUNTY PARK.

&&

MORALES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

TXZ244-245-151815-
ARANSAS-SAN PATRICIO-
1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

...SEVERAL TROPICAL FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS WERE SPOTTED OVER
ARANSAS AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...

AT 1214 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED TROPICAL FUNNELS
AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS OVER ARANSAS AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS WILL CONTINUE.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THE FUNNEL CLOUD REACHES THE
GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

94

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TORNADO          5 SW ROCKPORT           27.99N 97.11W
07/15/2005                   ARANSAS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR FARMROAD 188 AND 1069.

&&

TE