Storm Warning 51, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 080030 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

CORRECTED AREAS 6A 6B 13A AND 13B.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTON SOUND AND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SWING EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-081500-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-081500-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-081500-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-081500-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ170-081500-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NW 40 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-081500-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.

.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-081500-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO N 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-081500-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-081500-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-081500-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 081344 RRA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 MB LOW 730 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
VALDEZ WED NIGHT AT 978 MB. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 45 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEWS ISLAND WED MORNING AND MOVE TO 50 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-090300-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-090300-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MORNING. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090300-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-090300-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE FEB 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MESOETA THIS MORNING AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE. IT SEEMS TO PICK UP ON THE WAVE IN THE GULF A BIT BETTER THAN
THE GFS AS WELL AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR BETHEL. GFS
DEEPENS THE LOWS A BIT TOO MUCH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
BEING SAID META IS OVER DOING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL NEED
TO LOWER PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. THE FIRST IS THE LINGERING
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS INTERIOR AK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMPLEX LOW IN THE BERING. THE SECOND PROBLEM IS A SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OFF SITKINAK THAT THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL. THE
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS THE TRAIN OF LOWS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
NEAR KODIAK..ONE ON TUESDAY AND THE SECOND ON WEDNESDAY.

THE CURRENT COMPLEX IN THE BERING WILL EAST INTO BRISTOL BAY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HRS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST ESPECIALLY AS A FEW SECONDARY LOWS
DEVELOP FROM BRISTOL SOUTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE Y-K DELTAS ALTHOUGH
NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THERE. THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVIER SNOWS IN THE TALKEETNA ZONE THROUGH TODAY AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS CARRIED NORTH BY THE WAVE IN THE GULF AND THE
START OF SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OFF OF SITKINAK WILL NOT RESULT IN TOO MANY
HEADACHES. WILL JUST NEED TO BUMP UP THE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THE WAVE WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO VALDEZ.

THE MAIN FORECASTING ISSUES ARISE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING WAA ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF COAST. HOWEVER THE SIGNIFICANT CAA THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWEST AK AND THE BERING COULD SHIFT EAST JUST IN TIME TO THROW A
WRENCH IN THE PRECIP WORKS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...14 15
   GALES...2B 3A 3B 3C 5B 12A 12A1 12B 13A 13B 14 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW FEB 05