Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MESOETA THIS MORNING AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE. IT SEEMS TO PICK UP ON THE WAVE IN THE GULF A BIT BETTER THAN
THE GFS AS WELL AS THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR BETHEL. GFS
DEEPENS THE LOWS A BIT TOO MUCH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
BEING SAID META IS OVER DOING THE QPF ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL NEED
TO LOWER PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE ARE THREE AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY. THE FIRST IS THE LINGERING
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS INTERIOR AK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMPLEX LOW IN THE BERING. THE SECOND PROBLEM IS A SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OFF SITKINAK THAT THE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL. THE
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS THE TRAIN OF LOWS THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
NEAR KODIAK..ONE ON TUESDAY AND THE SECOND ON WEDNESDAY.

THE CURRENT COMPLEX IN THE BERING WILL EAST INTO BRISTOL BAY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HRS. THE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST ESPECIALLY AS A FEW SECONDARY LOWS
DEVELOP FROM BRISTOL SOUTHWESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE Y-K DELTAS ALTHOUGH
NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THERE. THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVIER SNOWS IN THE TALKEETNA ZONE THROUGH TODAY AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS CARRIED NORTH BY THE WAVE IN THE GULF AND THE
START OF SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OFF OF SITKINAK WILL NOT RESULT IN TOO MANY
HEADACHES. WILL JUST NEED TO BUMP UP THE WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THE WAVE WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO VALDEZ.

THE MAIN FORECASTING ISSUES ARISE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING WAA ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF COAST. HOWEVER THE SIGNIFICANT CAA THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWEST AK AND THE BERING COULD SHIFT EAST JUST IN TIME TO THROW A
WRENCH IN THE PRECIP WORKS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...14 15
   GALES...2B 3A 3B 3C 5B 12A 12A1 12B 13A 13B 14 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW FEB 05