Gale Warning 216, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 071755 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
850 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

UPDATE ZONES 120 AND 125.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 MB LOW 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE OVER THE
BARREN ISLANDS TUE MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER COOK INLET TUE
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING. A LOW WILL MOVE TO 225 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK TUE NIGHT AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ120-080300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
850 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.  
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-080300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
850 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW .  
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-080300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-080300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-080300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-080300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 7 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 6 2005
.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS - MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NW PACIFIC THIS MORNING
AS PART OF A 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS
PATTERN IS IMBALANCED WITH THE ANCHOR NEAR GREENLAND. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER OVER ADAK SUPPORTS A VERY MATURE 966 MB STORM CENTER THERE. AN
EXTENSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS GONE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TO A
DEVELOPING WAVE NEAR 52N 152W AT 15Z. GOES-10 REVEALS A SECONDARY
SYSTEM NEAR 45N 170W IN THE S QUAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT DROUGHT ENDING PRECIP TO MUCH OF
THIS GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA AND HAS BUILD A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
ALONG 145W THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS A 1037 MB HIGH CELL ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL ALCAN. ALL FOUR RADARS SHOW EXTENSIVE
PRECIP BANDS MOVING TOWARD THE NE AT 16Z. THE PLANETARY SCALE JET AT
250 MB 12Z IS ALMOST 2/3 AROUND THE HEMISPHERE STARTING IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH INDIA THEN MERGING WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS
THE N PACIFIC AT 150 KT TO AN EXIT NEAR 40N 152W - A GOOD POSITION
FOR THE DEVELOPING WAVE.

AER FORECASTS - ALL MODELS DEVELOP A 1003 MB WAVE JUST OFF KODIAK AT
00Z TODAY. BASED ON INITIALS WHERE DID IT COME FROM? FORTUNATELY
NATURE HAS ALREADY REVEALED HERSELF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THIS
WAVE MAY BE ALREADY DEEPER. THIS WAVE WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ONTO THE NORTH GULF COAST WHICH WILL CAUSE A
LITTLE MORE PRECIP SHADOW ON THE LEE SIDES. ALL MODELS INSIST THAT
THIS WAVE FIZZLES OUT BY 12Z MON. THE NEXT DEVELOPER IS THE SECONDARY
WHICH DEEPENS TO 978 MB JUST S OF SITKINAK BY 06Z TUE. ETA IS BEST ON
THIS ONE. GFS DRIVESW THIS LOW ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA TUE WHILE
THE 12Z ETA LETS IT DIE OUT OFF SEWARD 00Z WED. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE
ON THE DEPTH OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS.

ALU FORECASTS - THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SIMPLY FILLS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT. ALL MODELS HAVE A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOP NEAR BETHEL BY 18Z MON WITH A TROUGH UP INTO THE INTERIOR.
THE 12Z EAT IS PREFERRED ON THIS FEATURE BECAUSE THE GFS LOOKS TOO
DEEP AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO WESTERN AK. A SERIES OF SECONDARY LOWS
DEVELOP ON THE S QUAD OF THE OLD MAIN LOW AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 101 125 181 185 187 191. SNOW ADVSRY 145.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 150 155 170 172 176 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC FEB 05